KMKE / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WILow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

26%

17%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 13.0¢Risks 13.00u

EPSNO 87.0¢Risks 87.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +87.00u · EPS −87.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.9%	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	2.1%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	5.8%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	14.8%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	0.1%	4.3%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	13.0%	33.6%	2.5%	—	4.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	42.0%	1.3%	—	10.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	40.2%	62.7%	1.9%	—	10.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	20.6%	21.8%	1.0%	—	11.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	4.5%	24.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	8.3%	17.8%	1.7%	—	12.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	27.4%	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	50.9%	17.2%	1.7%	—	13.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	35.1%	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	36.4%	23.0%	1.9%	—	14.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	32.6%	17.7%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	18.3%	12.1%	2.0%	—	11.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	28.2%	8.4%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	16.3%	8.6%	4.2%	—	11.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	20.5%	12.1%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	10.4%	10.4%	2.1%	33.1%	11.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	14.8%	11.2%	1.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	15.3%	9.0%	1.8%	—	14.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	7.4%	6.6%	1.4%	—	16.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	10.6%	4.3%	0.4%	21.7%	8.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	10.9%	2.4%	0.4%	—	10.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	13.4%	3.7%	0.4%	20.0%	12.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	7.6%	3.2%	0.1%	—	11.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	8.9%	1.9%	1.2%	15.4%	20.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	16.2%	2.4%	4.4%	—	27.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	26.3%	1.8%	6.6%	13.4%	31.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	26%	34.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	0.0666
WeatherNext 2	26%	34.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0666
ICON	17%	36.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0296
IFS HRES	5%	39.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0024
National Blend	4%	36.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0016
NWS forecast	<1%	42.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 15:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	<1%	36.8°F	1.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261017-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 15 · 20:06 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗