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KMKE / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WILow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
26%
WN2
26%
ICON
17%
HRES
5%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 13.0¢Risks 13.00u
VS
EPSNO 87.0¢Risks 87.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +87.00u · EPS −87.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.7% · 2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.7% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.7% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.7% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.8% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.8% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.8% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.8% · 2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.8% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.8% · 2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.8% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00IFS HRES: 4.9% · 2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00IFS HRES: 4.9% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00IFS HRES: 4.9% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00IFS HRES: 4.9% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00IFS HRES: 4.9% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00IFS HRES: 4.9% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00IFS HRES: 4.9% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00IFS HRES: 4.9% · 2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00IFS HRES: 4.9% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00IFS HRES: 4.9% · 2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00IFS HRES: 4.9% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:0010-15 20:0610-15 23:5210-16 03:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:0025.8%0.2%21.7%4.9%17.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:0025.8%0.2%21.7%4.9%17.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:0025.8%0.2%21.7%4.9%17.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:0025.8%0.2%21.7%4.9%17.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:0025.8%0.2%25.8%4.9%17.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:0025.8%0.2%25.8%4.9%17.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:0025.8%0.2%25.8%4.9%17.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:0025.8%0.2%25.8%4.9%17.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:0025.8%0.2%25.8%4.9%17.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:0025.8%0.2%25.8%4.9%17.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:0025.8%0.2%25.8%4.9%17.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single26%34.9°F3.7°F2026-10-15 18:000.0666
WeatherNext 226%34.9°F3.7°F2026-10-15 12:000.0666
ICON17%36.0°F3.7°F2026-10-15 12:000.0296
IFS HRES5%39.3°F4.1°F2026-10-15 12:000.0024
National Blend4%36.0°F2.0°F2026-10-15 06:000.0016
NWS forecast<1%42.0°F3.7°F2026-10-15 15:000.0000
IFS Ensemble<1%36.8°F1.5°F2026-10-15 00:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261017-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 15 · 20:06 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗