KMKE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

90%

83%

77%

51%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.8¢Risks 73.80u

ICONNO 26.2¢Risks 26.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +26.20u · ICON −26.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	0.4%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	2.5%	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	1.3%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	1.2%	—	—	56.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	54.2%	20.4%	37.6%	—	61.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	57.3%	45.6%	70.3%	—	60.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	52.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	69.1%	46.9%	81.6%	—	68.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	86.4%	54.0%	80.5%	—	69.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.1%	16.3%	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	87.5%	70.7%	70.7%	—	65.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	62.6%	71.2%	75.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	79.8%	74.5%	70.1%	—	56.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	78.5%	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	78.4%	68.6%	59.1%	—	59.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	76.9%	63.0%	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	78.2%	61.5%	68.7%	—	63.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	78.9%	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	67.9%	78.1%	57.2%	74.9%	—	67.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	69.3%	51.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	68.9%	47.8%	72.7%	—	69.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	61.1%	41.0%	0.1%	—	69.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	54.6%	47.7%	75.8%	—	72.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	58.4%	51.2%	68.5%	—	71.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	52.5%	59.9%	71.3%	45.0%	70.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	53.9%	70.9%	76.2%	—	67.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.3%	50.0%	71.6%	70.5%	43.3%	61.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	67.5%	72.4%	73.5%	—	66.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	79.8%	73.2%	77.8%	68.2%	75.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	81.9%	61.9%	66.2%	—	56.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	65.4%	80.8%	68.3%	72.4%	69.7%	72.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	95.1%	78.5%	89.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	65.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0012
AIFS Single	90%	64.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0102
IFS Ensemble	83%	62.2°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0292
IFS HRES	77%	62.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0538
National Blend	59%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1673
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1954
ICON	51%	59.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2391

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗