KMKE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

90%

83%

77%

51%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.8¢Risks 73.80u

ICONNO 26.2¢Risks 26.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +26.20u · ICON −26.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:27:11+00:00	91.2%	58.9%	90.2%	76.8%	73.9%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	91.2%	60.0%	90.2%	76.8%	73.9%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	91.2%	60.0%	94.0%	76.8%	73.9%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	91.2%	60.0%	94.0%	76.8%	73.9%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	91.2%	60.0%	94.0%	76.8%	73.9%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	91.2%	60.0%	94.0%	76.8%	73.9%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	90.3%	60.0%	94.0%	79.9%	80.8%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	90.3%	60.0%	94.0%	79.9%	80.8%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	90.3%	60.0%	94.0%	79.9%	80.8%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	90.3%	60.0%	94.0%	79.9%	80.8%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	90.3%	60.0%	95.2%	79.9%	80.8%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	90.3%	60.0%	95.2%	79.9%	80.8%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	90.3%	60.0%	95.2%	79.9%	80.8%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	90.3%	60.0%	95.2%	79.9%	80.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	89.6%	60.0%	95.2%	79.9%	80.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	89.6%	60.0%	95.2%	79.9%	80.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	89.6%	60.0%	95.2%	79.9%	80.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:31+00:00	89.5%	82.4%	95.6%	76.0%	66.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	89.5%	82.9%	95.6%	76.0%	66.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	89.5%	82.9%	95.6%	76.0%	66.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	89.5%	82.9%	96.5%	76.0%	66.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	89.5%	82.9%	96.5%	76.0%	66.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	89.5%	82.9%	96.5%	76.0%	66.4%
2026-10-16T19:37:01+00:00	89.9%	82.9%	96.5%	76.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	89.9%	82.9%	96.5%	76.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	89.9%	82.9%	96.5%	76.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	89.9%	82.9%	96.5%	76.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	89.9%	82.9%	96.5%	76.8%	51.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	89.9%	82.9%	96.5%	76.8%	51.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	89.9%	82.9%	96.5%	76.8%	51.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	89.9%	82.9%	96.5%	76.8%	51.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	89.9%	82.9%	96.5%	76.8%	51.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	89.9%	82.9%	96.5%	76.8%	51.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	89.9%	82.9%	96.5%	76.8%	51.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	89.9%	82.9%	96.5%	76.8%	51.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	65.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0012
AIFS Single	90%	64.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0102
IFS Ensemble	83%	62.2°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0292
IFS HRES	77%	62.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0538
National Blend	59%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1673
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1954
ICON	51%	59.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2391

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗