KMKE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

75%

51%

51%

17%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.3¢Risks 52.30u

ICONNO 47.7¢Risks 47.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.70u · ICON −47.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	29.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.2%	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	1.1%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	0.5%	—	—	37.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	43.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	40.3%	11.9%	25.2%	—	47.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	42.7%	31.7%	56.6%	—	45.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	54.6%	32.3%	69.7%	—	53.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	75.8%	38.2%	67.7%	—	54.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	8.2%	54.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	53.3%	76.8%	55.0%	55.0%	—	49.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	55.1%	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.9%	65.4%	58.7%	53.5%	—	38.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	63.2%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	62.7%	50.9%	40.9%	—	40.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	60.3%	44.3%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	61.5%	42.3%	50.0%	—	44.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	52.0%	61.8%	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	60.2%	36.9%	56.1%	—	46.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	48.9%	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.5%	47.8%	27.3%	52.2%	—	48.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	38.9%	21.4%	0.0%	—	47.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	32.0%	26.0%	54.6%	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.6%	34.7%	28.3%	45.2%	—	48.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	28.7%	35.4%	47.5%	22.7%	46.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	29.1%	46.1%	52.6%	—	42.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	25.1%	46.0%	44.6%	20.0%	35.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	40.3%	45.8%	47.2%	—	39.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.7%	54.3%	45.7%	51.4%	40.0%	48.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	56.0%	32.5%	36.6%	—	27.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	53.2%	37.6%	42.1%	39.1%	42.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	79.7%	48.4%	66.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	64.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0164
AIFS Single	75%	64.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0610
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
IFS Ensemble	51%	61.6°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2372
IFS HRES	51%	61.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2391
National Blend	25%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.5595
ICON	17%	58.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.6823

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗