KMKE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

75%

51%

51%

17%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.3¢Risks 52.30u

ICONNO 47.7¢Risks 47.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.70u · ICON −47.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:54+00:00	81.2%	40.0%	89.0%	70.3%	72.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	81.2%	40.0%	87.7%	70.3%	72.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	81.2%	40.0%	87.7%	70.3%	72.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	81.2%	40.0%	87.7%	70.3%	72.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	81.2%	40.0%	87.7%	70.3%	72.0%
2026-10-13T08:03:28+00:00	82.0%	40.0%	87.7%	65.5%	85.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	82.0%	40.0%	87.7%	65.5%	85.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	82.0%	40.0%	87.7%	65.5%	85.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	82.0%	40.0%	87.7%	65.5%	85.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	82.0%	61.8%	83.0%	65.5%	85.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:37+00:00	82.0%	61.8%	83.0%	65.5%	85.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	82.0%	61.8%	83.0%	65.5%	85.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	82.0%	61.8%	83.0%	65.5%	85.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	77.9%	61.8%	82.9%	65.5%	85.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	77.9%	66.3%	82.9%	65.5%	85.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:28+00:00	77.9%	66.3%	82.9%	65.5%	85.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	77.9%	66.3%	82.9%	65.3%	85.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	77.9%	66.3%	86.8%	65.3%	85.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	77.9%	66.3%	86.8%	65.3%	85.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	77.9%	66.3%	86.8%	65.3%	85.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	78.5%	66.3%	86.8%	65.3%	85.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	78.5%	66.3%	86.8%	65.3%	85.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	78.5%	66.3%	86.8%	65.3%	85.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	78.5%	66.3%	86.8%	65.3%	85.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	78.5%	66.3%	86.8%	58.1%	85.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	78.5%	66.3%	83.4%	58.2%	85.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	78.5%	66.3%	83.4%	58.2%	85.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	78.5%	66.3%	83.4%	58.2%	85.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	72.1%	66.3%	83.4%	58.2%	85.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	72.1%	66.3%	83.4%	58.2%	85.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:47+00:00	72.1%	66.3%	83.4%	58.2%	85.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:29+00:00	72.1%	66.3%	83.4%	58.2%	85.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	72.1%	66.3%	83.4%	58.2%	85.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	72.1%	66.3%	83.4%	58.2%	85.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	72.1%	66.3%	83.4%	58.2%	85.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:16+00:00	72.1%	66.3%	83.4%	58.2%	85.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	78.3%	66.3%	83.4%	58.2%	76.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:36+00:00	78.3%	66.3%	83.4%	58.2%	76.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	78.3%	66.3%	83.4%	58.2%	76.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	78.3%	66.3%	83.4%	58.2%	76.0%
2026-10-14T10:33:02+00:00	78.3%	66.3%	83.4%	52.4%	76.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	78.3%	48.8%	79.0%	52.4%	76.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	78.3%	48.8%	79.0%	52.4%	76.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	78.3%	48.8%	79.0%	52.4%	76.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	76.3%	48.8%	79.0%	52.4%	76.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	76.3%	48.8%	79.0%	52.4%	76.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:17+00:00	76.3%	50.0%	79.0%	52.4%	76.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	76.3%	50.0%	79.0%	52.4%	76.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	76.3%	50.0%	79.0%	52.4%	76.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	76.3%	50.0%	79.8%	52.4%	76.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	76.3%	50.0%	79.8%	52.4%	76.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	76.3%	50.0%	79.8%	52.4%	76.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	77.7%	50.0%	79.8%	51.6%	74.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	77.7%	50.0%	79.8%	51.6%	74.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	77.7%	50.0%	79.8%	51.6%	74.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	77.7%	50.0%	79.8%	51.6%	74.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	77.7%	50.0%	79.8%	51.6%	74.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	77.7%	50.0%	81.2%	51.6%	74.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	77.7%	50.0%	81.2%	51.6%	74.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	77.7%	50.0%	81.2%	51.6%	74.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	80.8%	50.0%	81.2%	51.6%	74.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	80.8%	50.0%	81.2%	51.6%	74.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	80.8%	50.0%	81.2%	51.6%	74.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:10+00:00	80.8%	50.0%	81.2%	51.6%	74.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	80.8%	50.0%	81.2%	51.6%	74.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	80.8%	50.0%	84.6%	51.6%	74.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	80.8%	50.0%	84.6%	51.6%	74.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	80.8%	50.0%	84.6%	51.6%	74.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:43+00:00	79.3%	50.0%	84.6%	54.5%	68.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	79.3%	50.0%	84.6%	54.5%	68.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	79.3%	50.0%	84.6%	54.5%	68.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	79.3%	50.0%	84.6%	54.5%	68.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	79.3%	50.0%	84.6%	54.5%	68.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:19+00:00	79.3%	50.0%	87.0%	54.5%	68.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	79.3%	59.1%	87.0%	54.5%	68.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00	79.3%	59.1%	87.0%	54.5%	68.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	80.6%	59.0%	87.0%	54.5%	68.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	80.6%	59.0%	87.0%	54.5%	68.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00	80.6%	54.4%	87.0%	54.5%	68.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:00+00:00	80.6%	54.4%	87.0%	54.5%	68.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	80.6%	54.4%	88.2%	54.5%	68.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	80.6%	54.4%	88.2%	54.5%	68.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	80.6%	54.4%	88.2%	54.5%	68.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	80.6%	54.4%	88.2%	54.5%	68.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	77.3%	54.4%	88.2%	55.3%	66.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	77.3%	54.4%	88.2%	55.3%	66.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	77.3%	54.4%	88.2%	55.3%	66.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	77.3%	54.4%	88.2%	55.3%	66.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	77.3%	54.4%	85.7%	55.3%	66.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	77.3%	54.4%	85.7%	55.3%	66.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	77.3%	54.4%	85.7%	55.3%	66.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	76.6%	54.4%	85.7%	55.3%	66.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	76.6%	54.4%	85.7%	55.3%	66.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00	76.6%	54.4%	85.7%	55.3%	66.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	76.6%	54.4%	85.7%	55.3%	66.6%
2026-10-16T04:24:08+00:00	76.6%	54.4%	85.7%	55.3%	66.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	76.6%	54.4%	86.4%	55.3%	66.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	76.6%	54.4%	86.4%	55.3%	66.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	76.6%	54.4%	86.4%	55.3%	66.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	75.4%	54.4%	86.4%	55.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	75.4%	54.4%	86.4%	55.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	75.4%	54.4%	86.4%	55.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	75.4%	54.4%	86.4%	55.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	75.4%	54.4%	86.4%	55.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:17+00:00	75.4%	61.1%	85.6%	55.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	75.4%	61.1%	85.6%	55.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	75.4%	61.1%	85.6%	55.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T13:28:30+00:00	77.7%	61.1%	85.6%	58.7%	44.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:46+00:00	77.7%	60.9%	85.6%	58.7%	44.4%
2026-10-17T15:24:40+00:00	76.1%	51.3%	87.2%	57.5%	18.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	76.1%	51.3%	87.2%	57.5%	18.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	76.1%	51.3%	83.2%	57.5%	18.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	76.1%	51.3%	83.2%	57.5%	18.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	76.1%	51.3%	83.2%	57.5%	18.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	76.1%	51.3%	83.2%	57.5%	18.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	70.3%	51.3%	83.2%	51.1%	17.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	70.3%	51.3%	83.2%	51.1%	17.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	70.3%	51.3%	83.2%	51.1%	17.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	70.3%	51.3%	83.2%	51.1%	17.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	70.3%	51.3%	79.5%	51.1%	17.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	70.3%	51.3%	79.5%	51.1%	17.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	70.3%	51.3%	79.5%	51.1%	17.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	70.3%	51.3%	79.5%	51.1%	17.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	75.3%	51.3%	79.5%	51.1%	17.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	75.3%	51.3%	79.5%	51.1%	17.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	75.3%	51.3%	79.5%	51.1%	17.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:00+00:00	75.3%	51.3%	79.5%	51.1%	17.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	75.3%	51.3%	87.2%	51.1%	17.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	75.3%	51.3%	87.2%	51.1%	17.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	75.3%	51.3%	87.2%	51.1%	17.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	75.3%	51.3%	87.2%	51.1%	17.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	64.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0164
AIFS Single	75%	64.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0610
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
IFS Ensemble	51%	61.6°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2372
IFS HRES	51%	61.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2391
National Blend	25%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.5595
ICON	17%	58.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.6823

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗