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KMKE / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 10:50 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
89%
AIFS
56%
EPS
55%
HRES
52%
ICON
51%
Consensus
64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 70.0¢Risks 70.05u
VS
ICONNO 29.9¢Risks 29.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.95u · ICON −29.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 55.7% · 2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:00AIFS Single: 55.7% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00AIFS Single: 55.7% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00AIFS Single: 55.7% · 2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00AIFS Single: 55.7% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.3% · 2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.3% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.3% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.3% · 2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.3% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00IFS HRES: 51.9% · 2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:00IFS HRES: 51.9% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00IFS HRES: 51.9% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00IFS HRES: 51.9% · 2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00IFS HRES: 51.9% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00ICON: 50.8% · 2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:00ICON: 50.8% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00ICON: 50.8% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00ICON: 50.8% · 2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00ICON: 50.8% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:0010-12 07:4810-12 09:1910-12 10:50
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:0055.7%54.5%89.3%51.9%50.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:0055.7%54.5%89.3%51.9%50.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:0055.7%54.5%89.3%51.9%50.8%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:0055.7%54.5%89.3%51.9%50.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:0055.7%54.5%89.3%51.9%50.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 289%69.1°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:000.0114
National Blend56%63.0°F3.3°F2026-10-12 00:000.1936
AIFS Single56%63.3°F5.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.1962
IFS Ensemble55%63.0°F4.4°F2026-10-11 00:000.2070
IFS HRES52%62.8°F6.3°F2026-10-12 00:000.2314
ICON51%62.7°F9.9°F2026-10-12 00:000.2421

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261019-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 63°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗