KMKE / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 10:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

56%

55%

52%

51%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 70.0¢Risks 70.05u

ICONNO 29.9¢Risks 29.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.95u · ICON −29.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	33.0%	—	—	62.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	23.3%	60.7%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	30.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	75.9%	56.3%	35.6%	—	56.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	34.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.3%	58.0%	16.1%	54.4%	—	53.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	75.5%	60.6%	46.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	70.5%	50.0%	49.2%	—	46.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	11.8%	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	70.0%	46.7%	39.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	56.8%	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	71.6%	56.1%	57.8%	—	55.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	64.9%	50.0%	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	65.3%	47.2%	50.0%	47.2%	—	54.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	55.7%	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	57.7%	48.0%	56.8%	—	57.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	44.0%	45.0%	—	—	58.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	55.1%	47.9%	68.8%	—	60.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	62.5%	50.0%	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	56.5%	55.5%	68.9%	0.7%	56.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	59.0%	65.4%	0.1%	—	54.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	59.2%	65.9%	48.8%	50.0%	50.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	69.6%	74.7%	65.3%	44.0%	—	51.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	82.6%	66.9%	56.2%	1.2%	55.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	55.1%	80.9%	59.0%	46.1%	—	42.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	65.7%	78.0%	55.4%	43.3%	56.7%	51.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	90.8%	52.8%	51.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	94.5%	52.9%	60.1%	51.4%	64.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	95.6%	47.0%	47.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	93.9%	53.2%	36.1%	39.1%	75.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	98.3%	67.6%	75.9%	—	92.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	69.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0114
National Blend	56%	63.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1936
AIFS Single	56%	63.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1962
IFS Ensemble	55%	63.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2070
IFS HRES	52%	62.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2314
ICON	51%	62.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2421

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261019-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 63°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗