KMKE / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

85%

50%

44%

42%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.8¢Risks 69.75u

HRESNO 30.2¢Risks 30.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.25u · HRES −30.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	57.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	52.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	27.3%	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.3%	18.4%	54.0%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	70.2%	49.3%	29.2%	—	49.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	50.7%	12.0%	47.1%	—	46.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	69.1%	53.0%	38.7%	—	42.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	63.3%	42.1%	41.3%	—	39.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	8.2%	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	62.3%	38.5%	31.5%	—	41.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	48.3%	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	63.7%	47.4%	49.1%	—	46.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	41.1%	31.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	38.2%	40.9%	38.2%	—	45.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	46.2%	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	48.0%	38.5%	47.1%	—	48.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.0%	34.4%	35.3%	—	—	49.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	44.9%	37.8%	59.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	52.1%	39.5%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	45.6%	44.5%	58.7%	0.3%	45.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	47.8%	54.5%	0.1%	—	43.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	47.7%	54.6%	37.4%	38.5%	38.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	64.1%	53.6%	32.5%	—	39.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	73.4%	55.0%	43.8%	0.5%	42.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	70.9%	46.1%	33.7%	—	30.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	66.9%	42.0%	30.7%	43.3%	38.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	83.6%	39.0%	37.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	89.2%	38.6%	45.7%	37.2%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	69.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	67.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	50%	63.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	63.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	62.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗