KMKE / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

85%

50%

44%

42%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.8¢Risks 69.75u

HRESNO 30.2¢Risks 30.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.25u · HRES −30.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00	48.6%	45.5%	73.4%	45.6%	46.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	48.6%	44.6%	73.4%	45.6%	46.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	48.6%	44.6%	73.4%	45.6%	46.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	73.4%	44.6%	73.4%	45.6%	46.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	73.3%	44.6%	73.4%	45.6%	46.8%
2026-10-12T15:27:13+00:00	73.3%	44.6%	73.4%	45.6%	46.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	73.3%	44.5%	73.4%	45.6%	46.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	73.3%	44.5%	74.7%	45.6%	46.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	73.3%	44.5%	74.7%	45.6%	46.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	73.3%	44.5%	74.7%	45.6%	46.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	73.3%	44.5%	74.7%	45.6%	46.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	63.9%	44.5%	74.7%	26.9%	77.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	63.9%	44.5%	74.7%	26.9%	77.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	63.9%	44.5%	74.7%	26.9%	77.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	63.9%	44.5%	74.7%	26.9%	77.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	63.9%	44.5%	73.4%	26.9%	77.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	63.9%	44.5%	73.4%	26.9%	77.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	63.9%	44.5%	73.4%	26.9%	77.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	63.9%	44.5%	73.4%	26.9%	77.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	77.8%	44.5%	73.4%	26.9%	77.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	77.8%	44.5%	73.4%	26.9%	77.5%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	77.8%	44.5%	73.4%	26.9%	77.5%
2026-10-13T04:15:55+00:00	77.8%	44.5%	73.4%	26.9%	77.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	77.8%	44.5%	77.2%	26.9%	77.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	77.8%	44.5%	77.2%	26.9%	77.5%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	77.8%	44.5%	77.2%	26.9%	77.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	77.8%	44.5%	77.2%	26.9%	77.5%
2026-10-13T08:03:28+00:00	75.7%	44.5%	77.2%	62.0%	69.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	75.7%	44.5%	77.2%	62.0%	69.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	75.7%	44.5%	77.2%	62.0%	69.6%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	75.7%	44.5%	77.2%	62.0%	69.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	75.7%	41.9%	79.7%	62.0%	69.6%
2026-10-13T11:50:37+00:00	75.7%	41.9%	79.7%	62.0%	69.6%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	75.7%	41.9%	79.7%	62.0%	69.6%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	75.7%	41.9%	79.7%	62.0%	69.6%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	78.6%	41.9%	79.7%	62.0%	70.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	78.6%	47.3%	79.7%	62.0%	70.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:28+00:00	78.6%	47.3%	79.7%	62.0%	70.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	78.6%	47.3%	79.7%	62.0%	70.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	78.6%	47.3%	80.3%	62.0%	70.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	78.6%	47.3%	80.3%	62.0%	70.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	78.6%	47.3%	80.3%	62.0%	70.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	71.4%	47.3%	80.3%	62.0%	81.1%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	71.4%	47.3%	80.3%	62.0%	81.1%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	71.4%	47.3%	80.3%	62.0%	81.1%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	71.4%	47.3%	80.3%	62.0%	81.1%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	71.4%	47.3%	80.3%	62.6%	81.1%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	71.4%	47.3%	83.7%	62.6%	81.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	71.4%	47.3%	83.7%	62.6%	81.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	71.4%	47.3%	83.7%	62.6%	81.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	73.9%	47.3%	83.7%	62.6%	81.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	73.9%	47.3%	83.7%	62.6%	81.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:47+00:00	73.9%	47.3%	83.7%	62.6%	81.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:29+00:00	73.9%	47.3%	83.7%	62.6%	81.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	73.9%	47.3%	83.7%	62.6%	81.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	73.9%	47.3%	83.7%	62.6%	81.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	73.9%	47.3%	83.7%	62.6%	81.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:16+00:00	73.9%	47.3%	83.7%	62.6%	81.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	81.3%	47.3%	83.7%	62.6%	76.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:36+00:00	81.3%	47.3%	83.7%	62.6%	76.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	81.3%	47.3%	83.7%	62.6%	76.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	81.3%	47.3%	83.7%	62.6%	76.7%
2026-10-14T10:33:03+00:00	81.3%	47.3%	83.7%	45.2%	76.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	81.3%	46.8%	87.8%	45.2%	76.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	81.3%	46.8%	87.8%	45.2%	76.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	81.3%	46.8%	87.8%	45.2%	76.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	82.4%	46.8%	87.8%	45.2%	76.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	82.3%	46.8%	87.9%	45.2%	76.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:17+00:00	82.3%	48.3%	87.9%	45.2%	76.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	82.3%	48.3%	87.9%	45.2%	76.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	82.3%	48.3%	87.9%	45.2%	76.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	82.3%	48.3%	87.4%	45.2%	76.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	82.3%	48.3%	87.4%	45.2%	76.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	82.3%	48.3%	87.4%	45.2%	76.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	80.7%	48.3%	87.4%	52.1%	75.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	80.7%	48.3%	87.4%	52.1%	75.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	80.7%	48.3%	87.4%	52.1%	75.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	80.7%	48.3%	87.4%	52.1%	75.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	80.7%	48.3%	87.4%	52.1%	75.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	80.7%	48.4%	86.8%	52.1%	75.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	80.7%	48.4%	86.8%	52.1%	75.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	80.7%	48.4%	86.8%	52.1%	75.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	81.2%	48.4%	86.8%	52.1%	75.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	81.2%	48.4%	86.8%	52.1%	75.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	81.2%	48.4%	86.8%	52.1%	75.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:10+00:00	81.2%	48.4%	86.8%	52.1%	75.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	81.2%	48.4%	86.8%	52.1%	75.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	81.2%	48.4%	89.7%	52.1%	75.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	81.2%	48.4%	89.7%	52.1%	75.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	81.2%	48.4%	89.7%	52.1%	75.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:43+00:00	81.4%	48.4%	89.7%	42.1%	75.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	81.4%	48.4%	89.7%	42.1%	75.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	81.4%	48.4%	89.7%	42.1%	75.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	81.4%	48.4%	89.7%	42.1%	75.3%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	81.4%	48.4%	89.7%	42.1%	75.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:19+00:00	81.4%	48.4%	91.5%	42.1%	75.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	81.4%	56.1%	91.5%	42.1%	75.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00	81.4%	56.1%	91.5%	42.1%	75.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	81.4%	56.1%	91.5%	42.1%	75.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	81.4%	56.1%	91.5%	42.1%	75.1%
2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00	81.4%	51.5%	91.5%	42.1%	75.1%
2026-10-15T16:20:00+00:00	81.4%	51.5%	91.5%	42.1%	75.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	81.4%	51.5%	88.7%	42.1%	75.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	81.4%	51.5%	88.7%	42.1%	75.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	81.4%	51.5%	88.7%	42.1%	75.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	81.4%	51.5%	88.7%	42.1%	75.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	80.8%	51.5%	88.7%	35.2%	53.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	80.8%	51.5%	88.7%	35.2%	53.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	80.8%	51.5%	88.7%	35.2%	53.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	80.8%	51.5%	88.7%	35.2%	53.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	80.8%	51.5%	91.5%	35.2%	53.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	80.8%	51.5%	91.5%	35.2%	53.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	80.8%	51.5%	91.5%	35.2%	53.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	80.2%	51.5%	91.5%	35.2%	53.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	80.2%	51.5%	91.5%	35.2%	53.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00	80.2%	51.5%	91.5%	35.2%	53.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	80.2%	51.5%	91.5%	35.2%	53.3%
2026-10-16T04:24:08+00:00	80.2%	51.5%	91.5%	35.2%	53.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	80.2%	51.5%	91.1%	35.2%	53.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	80.2%	51.5%	91.1%	35.2%	53.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	80.2%	51.5%	91.1%	35.2%	53.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	78.7%	51.5%	91.1%	35.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	78.7%	51.5%	91.1%	35.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	78.7%	51.5%	91.1%	35.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	78.7%	51.5%	91.1%	35.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	78.7%	51.5%	91.1%	35.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:17+00:00	78.7%	54.4%	92.7%	35.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	78.7%	54.4%	92.7%	35.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	78.7%	54.4%	92.7%	35.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:30+00:00	79.3%	54.4%	92.7%	41.1%	55.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:46+00:00	79.3%	54.4%	92.7%	41.1%	55.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:31+00:00	79.3%	52.9%	92.7%	41.1%	55.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	79.3%	52.9%	92.7%	41.1%	55.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	79.3%	52.9%	92.7%	41.1%	55.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	79.3%	52.9%	93.5%	41.1%	55.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	79.3%	52.9%	93.5%	41.1%	55.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	79.3%	52.9%	93.5%	41.1%	55.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:01+00:00	83.1%	52.9%	93.5%	41.1%	52.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	83.1%	52.9%	93.5%	41.1%	52.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	83.1%	52.9%	93.5%	41.1%	52.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	83.1%	52.9%	93.5%	41.1%	52.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	83.1%	52.9%	93.5%	42.9%	52.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	83.1%	52.9%	93.9%	42.9%	52.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	83.1%	52.9%	93.9%	42.9%	52.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	83.1%	52.9%	93.9%	42.9%	52.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	82.5%	52.9%	93.9%	42.9%	52.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	82.5%	52.9%	93.9%	42.9%	52.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	82.5%	52.9%	93.9%	42.9%	52.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	82.5%	52.9%	93.9%	42.9%	52.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:40+00:00	81.9%	47.4%	95.6%	42.3%	42.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	81.9%	47.4%	95.6%	42.3%	42.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	81.9%	47.4%	93.9%	42.3%	42.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	81.9%	47.4%	93.9%	42.3%	42.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	81.9%	47.4%	93.9%	42.3%	42.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	81.9%	47.4%	93.9%	42.3%	42.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	79.2%	47.4%	93.9%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	79.2%	47.4%	93.9%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	79.2%	47.4%	93.9%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	79.2%	47.4%	93.9%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	79.2%	47.4%	92.7%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	79.2%	47.4%	92.7%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	79.2%	47.4%	92.7%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	79.2%	47.4%	92.7%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	83.2%	47.4%	92.7%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	83.2%	47.4%	92.7%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	83.2%	47.4%	92.7%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:00+00:00	83.2%	47.4%	92.7%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	83.2%	47.4%	96.7%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	83.2%	47.4%	96.7%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	83.2%	47.4%	96.7%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	83.2%	47.4%	96.7%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:17+00:00	84.5%	47.4%	96.7%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	84.5%	47.4%	96.7%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	84.5%	47.4%	96.7%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	84.5%	47.4%	96.7%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00	84.5%	43.9%	96.0%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	84.5%	43.9%	96.0%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	84.5%	43.9%	96.0%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	84.5%	43.9%	96.0%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	75.3%	44.0%	96.0%	47.9%	57.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:47+00:00	75.3%	44.0%	96.0%	47.9%	57.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	75.3%	43.9%	96.0%	47.9%	57.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	75.3%	43.9%	96.0%	47.9%	57.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	75.3%	43.9%	92.6%	47.9%	57.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00	75.3%	43.9%	92.6%	47.9%	57.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	75.3%	43.9%	92.6%	47.9%	57.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	80.6%	43.9%	92.6%	41.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	80.6%	43.9%	92.6%	41.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	80.6%	43.9%	92.6%	41.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	80.6%	43.9%	92.6%	41.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	80.6%	43.9%	92.6%	41.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	80.6%	43.9%	95.0%	41.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	80.6%	43.9%	95.0%	41.5%	50.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	80.6%	43.9%	95.0%	41.5%	50.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	85.1%	43.9%	95.0%	41.5%	50.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	85.1%	43.9%	95.0%	41.5%	50.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	85.1%	43.9%	95.0%	41.5%	50.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	85.1%	43.9%	95.0%	41.5%	50.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:46+00:00	85.1%	43.9%	95.0%	41.5%	50.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	85.1%	43.9%	98.0%	41.5%	50.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	85.1%	43.9%	98.0%	41.5%	50.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	85.1%	43.9%	98.0%	41.5%	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	69.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	67.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	50%	63.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	63.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	62.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗