KMKE / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

87%

73%

69%

69%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 84.3¢Risks 84.35u

EPSNO 15.7¢Risks 15.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +15.65u · EPS −15.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	65.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	—	71.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	—	—	—	69.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	—	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	53.1%	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	20.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	50.6%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	28.2%	52.0%	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	82.9%	82.0%	63.1%	38.2%	—	72.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	91.3%	40.6%	67.0%	—	69.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	74.2%	71.7%	64.2%	49.2%	—	58.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	62.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	80.5%	81.1%	52.4%	44.4%	—	63.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	79.3%	18.4%	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	77.5%	71.4%	34.5%	50.8%	—	59.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	75.4%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	79.8%	39.6%	64.6%	—	54.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	73.6%	33.4%	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	68.6%	40.9%	71.8%	—	62.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	79.7%	68.2%	44.3%	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	79.7%	57.7%	51.0%	62.4%	—	59.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	75.1%	65.6%	51.0%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	67.9%	56.1%	46.9%	45.9%	3.0%	54.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	73.8%	59.5%	43.7%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	65.9%	43.5%	38.2%	—	52.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	65.4%	69.5%	46.6%	2.4%	—	48.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	63.7%	41.9%	28.9%	1.5%	53.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	78.4%	42.8%	39.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	82.6%	45.0%	46.3%	57.4%	66.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	62.7%	86.5%	43.6%	50.0%	—	62.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	83.5%	42.0%	54.0%	44.6%	68.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	91.3%	45.8%	67.5%	—	77.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	87.8%	48.5%	68.2%	64.2%	86.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	45.5%	67.5%	—	64.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	68.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	65.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	63.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	63.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	69%	63.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	62.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261020-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗