KMKE / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

87%

73%

69%

69%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 84.3¢Risks 84.35u

EPSNO 15.7¢Risks 15.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +15.65u · EPS −15.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:47+00:00	88.1%	61.4%	98.7%	60.6%	63.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	88.1%	61.4%	98.7%	60.6%	63.2%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	88.1%	61.4%	98.7%	60.6%	63.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	88.1%	61.4%	98.2%	60.6%	63.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00	88.1%	61.4%	98.2%	60.6%	63.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	88.1%	61.4%	98.2%	60.6%	63.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	89.5%	61.4%	98.2%	58.7%	60.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	89.5%	61.4%	98.2%	58.7%	60.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	89.5%	61.4%	98.2%	58.7%	60.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	89.5%	61.4%	98.2%	58.7%	60.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	89.5%	61.4%	98.2%	58.7%	60.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	89.5%	61.4%	98.6%	58.7%	60.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	89.5%	61.4%	98.6%	58.7%	60.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	89.5%	61.4%	98.6%	58.7%	60.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	89.1%	61.4%	98.6%	58.7%	60.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	89.1%	61.4%	98.6%	58.7%	60.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	89.1%	61.4%	98.6%	58.7%	60.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	89.1%	61.4%	98.6%	58.7%	60.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:46+00:00	89.1%	61.4%	98.6%	58.7%	60.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	89.1%	61.4%	98.7%	58.7%	60.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	89.1%	61.4%	98.7%	58.7%	60.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	89.1%	61.4%	98.7%	58.7%	60.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:09+00:00	89.3%	61.4%	98.7%	73.2%	68.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	89.3%	61.4%	98.7%	73.2%	68.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	89.3%	61.4%	98.7%	73.2%	68.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	89.3%	61.4%	98.7%	73.2%	68.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00	89.3%	61.4%	98.7%	73.2%	68.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:52+00:00	89.3%	69.4%	99.3%	73.2%	68.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	89.3%	69.4%	99.3%	73.2%	68.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	89.3%	69.4%	99.3%	73.2%	68.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	86.8%	69.4%	99.3%	73.2%	68.4%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	86.9%	69.4%	99.3%	73.2%	69.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	68.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	65.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	63.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	63.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	69%	63.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	62.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261020-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗