KMKE / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

23%

20%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.5¢Risks 13.45u

EPSNO 86.5¢Risks 86.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.55u · EPS −86.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	4.9%	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	3.8%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	0.7%	3.5%	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	15.3%	5.4%	1.3%	—	8.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	25.4%	1.2%	5.7%	—	6.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	6.3%	4.1%	1.7%	—	2.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	9.3%	1.6%	1.0%	—	3.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	0.1%	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	4.1%	0.4%	1.1%	—	2.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	4.7%	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	5.7%	0.4%	2.1%	—	1.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	3.2%	0.2%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	2.0%	0.3%	2.5%	—	1.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	1.6%	0.3%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.6%	0.4%	0.9%	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.9%	0.3%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.5%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	27%	68.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	68.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	68.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	62.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	64.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	65.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗