KMKE / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

23%

20%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.5¢Risks 13.45u

EPSNO 86.5¢Risks 86.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.55u · EPS −86.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:29+00:00	42.9%	3.1%	27.5%	7.6%	15.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	42.9%	3.1%	27.5%	7.6%	15.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	42.9%	3.1%	27.5%	7.6%	15.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	42.9%	3.1%	27.5%	7.6%	15.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	42.9%	1.0%	28.0%	7.6%	15.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:37+00:00	42.9%	1.0%	28.0%	7.6%	15.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	42.9%	1.0%	28.0%	7.6%	15.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	42.9%	1.0%	28.0%	7.6%	15.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	33.5%	1.0%	28.0%	7.6%	15.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	33.5%	1.4%	28.0%	7.6%	15.9%
2026-10-13T15:41:28+00:00	33.5%	1.4%	28.0%	7.6%	15.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	33.5%	1.4%	28.0%	7.6%	15.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	33.5%	1.4%	31.5%	7.6%	15.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	33.5%	1.4%	31.5%	7.6%	15.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	33.5%	1.4%	31.5%	7.6%	15.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	35.4%	1.4%	31.5%	7.6%	44.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	35.4%	1.4%	31.5%	7.6%	44.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	35.4%	1.4%	31.5%	7.6%	44.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	35.4%	1.4%	31.5%	7.6%	44.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	35.4%	1.4%	31.5%	12.5%	44.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	35.4%	1.4%	31.5%	12.5%	44.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	35.4%	1.4%	31.5%	12.5%	44.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	35.4%	1.4%	31.5%	12.5%	44.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	36.1%	1.4%	31.5%	12.5%	44.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	36.1%	1.4%	31.5%	12.5%	44.8%
2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00	36.1%	1.4%	31.5%	12.5%	44.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:29+00:00	36.1%	1.4%	31.5%	12.5%	44.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	36.1%	1.4%	31.5%	12.5%	44.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	36.1%	1.4%	31.5%	12.5%	44.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	36.1%	1.4%	31.5%	12.5%	44.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:16+00:00	36.1%	1.4%	31.5%	12.5%	44.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	38.1%	1.4%	31.5%	12.5%	50.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:36+00:00	38.1%	1.4%	31.5%	12.5%	50.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	38.1%	1.4%	31.5%	12.5%	50.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	38.1%	1.4%	31.5%	12.5%	50.0%
2026-10-14T10:33:03+00:00	38.1%	1.4%	31.5%	6.6%	50.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	38.1%	0.2%	29.3%	6.6%	50.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	38.1%	0.2%	29.3%	6.6%	50.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	38.1%	0.2%	29.3%	6.6%	50.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	27.9%	0.2%	29.3%	6.6%	50.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	28.9%	0.3%	29.6%	6.6%	50.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:17+00:00	28.9%	0.2%	29.6%	6.6%	50.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	28.9%	0.2%	29.6%	6.6%	50.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	28.9%	0.2%	29.6%	6.6%	50.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	28.9%	0.2%	23.3%	6.6%	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	28.9%	0.2%	23.3%	6.6%	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	28.9%	0.2%	23.3%	6.6%	50.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	22.3%	0.2%	23.3%	6.8%	26.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	22.3%	0.2%	23.3%	6.8%	26.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	22.3%	0.2%	23.3%	6.8%	26.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	22.3%	0.2%	23.3%	6.8%	26.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	22.3%	0.2%	23.3%	6.8%	26.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	22.3%	0.2%	19.6%	6.8%	26.7%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	22.3%	0.2%	19.6%	6.8%	26.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	22.3%	0.2%	19.6%	6.8%	26.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	22.9%	0.2%	19.6%	6.8%	26.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	22.9%	0.2%	19.6%	6.8%	26.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	22.9%	0.2%	19.6%	6.8%	26.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:10+00:00	22.9%	0.2%	19.6%	6.8%	26.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	22.9%	0.2%	19.6%	6.8%	26.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	27%	68.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	68.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	68.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	62.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	64.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	65.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗