KMKE / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

76%

71%

47%

40%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.7¢Risks 59.65u

HRESNO 40.3¢Risks 40.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.35u · HRES −40.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	20.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	8.8%	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	14.6%	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	21.2%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	12.1%	46.0%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.4%	57.0%	43.7%	5.4%	—	34.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	58.7%	12.8%	22.6%	—	40.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	51.5%	67.7%	9.3%	41.7%	—	40.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	62.5%	21.2%	42.9%	—	33.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	1.4%	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	50.0%	14.3%	50.0%	—	50.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	17.8%	20.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	20.8%	33.0%	51.7%	—	50.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	35.9%	39.3%	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	32.2%	37.3%	29.7%	—	44.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	43.4%	37.9%	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	44.2%	41.3%	36.6%	—	48.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	49.0%	52.0%	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	43.9%	43.9%	14.5%	—	45.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	63.5%	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	68.9%	36.1%	25.5%	—	54.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	73.3%	40.0%	0.0%	—	48.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	71.0%	37.4%	44.2%	0.0%	57.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	66.4%	80.9%	39.3%	38.1%	—	65.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	75.4%	80.1%	38.9%	51.2%	53.7%	74.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	36.1%	60.2%	—	70.9%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	86.6%	38.1%	70.5%	0.0%	80.9%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	80.9%	86.8%	44.4%	56.9%	—	84.5%
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	87.0%	38.6%	76.6%	44.2%	89.8%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	87.2%	44.0%	67.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	51.6%	—	43.7%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	79%	70.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	70.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	71%	72.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	67.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	66.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	64.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261021-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 67°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗