KMKE / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

76%

71%

47%

40%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.7¢Risks 59.65u

HRESNO 40.3¢Risks 40.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.35u · HRES −40.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:04+00:00	91.2%	54.5%	82.8%	45.0%	40.5%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	91.2%	46.0%	91.4%	45.0%	40.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	91.2%	46.0%	91.4%	45.0%	40.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	91.2%	46.0%	91.4%	45.0%	40.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	87.3%	46.0%	91.4%	45.0%	40.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	87.3%	46.0%	91.3%	45.0%	40.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:17+00:00	87.3%	47.0%	91.3%	45.0%	40.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	87.3%	47.0%	91.3%	45.0%	40.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	87.3%	47.0%	91.3%	45.0%	40.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	87.3%	47.0%	85.0%	45.0%	40.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	87.3%	47.0%	85.0%	45.0%	40.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	87.3%	47.0%	85.0%	45.0%	40.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	75.1%	47.0%	85.0%	40.0%	71.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	75.1%	47.0%	85.0%	40.0%	71.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	75.1%	47.0%	85.0%	40.0%	71.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	75.1%	47.0%	85.0%	40.0%	71.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	75.1%	47.0%	85.0%	40.0%	71.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	75.1%	47.0%	79.3%	40.0%	71.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	75.1%	47.0%	79.3%	40.0%	71.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	75.1%	47.0%	79.3%	40.0%	71.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	76.2%	47.0%	79.3%	40.0%	71.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	76.2%	47.0%	79.3%	40.0%	71.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	76.2%	47.0%	79.3%	40.0%	71.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	79%	70.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	70.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	71%	72.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	67.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	66.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	64.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261021-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 67°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗