KMKE / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

95%

74%

47%

38%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.8¢Risks 68.85u

ICONNO 31.1¢Risks 31.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.15u · ICON −31.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	—	—	—	60.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	62.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	24.4%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	39.1%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	15.5%	50.7%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	80.1%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	80.1%	92.1%	63.1%	18.4%	—	54.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	62.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	42.0%	11.3%	27.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	45.4%	66.3%	39.4%	—	56.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	40.5%	33.7%	41.3%	—	35.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	7.0%	34.9%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	35.3%	53.3%	30.0%	—	38.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	50.9%	58.5%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	43.0%	59.6%	38.8%	—	37.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	34.2%	17.8%	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	41.8%	49.1%	27.4%	—	33.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	44.3%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	60.6%	57.7%	11.6%	—	39.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	59.9%	59.9%	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	59.2%	61.2%	20.4%	—	25.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	79.5%	62.5%	58.4%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	40.3%	33.1%	34.1%	37.1%	32.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	18.3%	12.3%	—	25.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	74.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	72.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	67.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	65.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	38%	64.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	64.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗