KMKE / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

95%

74%

47%

38%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.8¢Risks 68.85u

ICONNO 31.1¢Risks 31.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.15u · ICON −31.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:43+00:00	95.8%	73.4%	94.6%	41.9%	44.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	95.8%	73.4%	94.6%	41.9%	44.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	95.8%	73.4%	94.6%	41.9%	44.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	95.8%	73.4%	94.6%	41.9%	44.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	95.8%	73.4%	94.6%	41.9%	44.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:00+00:00	88.7%	54.3%	89.3%	39.1%	55.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	88.7%	54.3%	94.3%	39.1%	55.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	88.7%	54.3%	94.3%	39.1%	55.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	88.7%	54.3%	94.3%	39.1%	55.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	88.7%	54.3%	94.3%	39.1%	55.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:17+00:00	89.7%	54.3%	94.3%	31.6%	57.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	89.7%	54.3%	94.3%	31.6%	57.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	89.7%	54.3%	94.3%	31.6%	57.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	89.7%	54.3%	94.3%	31.6%	57.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00	89.7%	51.4%	93.3%	31.6%	57.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	89.7%	51.4%	93.3%	31.6%	57.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	89.7%	51.4%	93.3%	31.6%	57.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	89.7%	51.4%	93.3%	31.6%	57.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	84.2%	51.4%	93.3%	31.6%	57.3%
2026-10-19T04:30:46+00:00	85.7%	51.4%	95.9%	48.4%	56.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	85.7%	51.4%	97.2%	48.4%	56.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	85.7%	51.4%	97.2%	48.4%	56.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	85.7%	51.4%	97.2%	48.4%	56.5%
2026-10-19T07:33:09+00:00	89.7%	51.4%	97.2%	36.0%	67.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	89.7%	51.4%	97.2%	36.0%	67.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	89.7%	51.4%	97.2%	36.0%	67.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	89.7%	51.4%	97.2%	36.0%	67.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00	89.7%	51.4%	97.2%	36.0%	67.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:52+00:00	89.7%	57.0%	98.5%	36.0%	67.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	89.7%	57.0%	98.5%	36.0%	67.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	89.7%	57.0%	98.5%	36.0%	67.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	84.9%	57.0%	98.5%	36.0%	67.4%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	84.9%	57.0%	98.5%	36.0%	67.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:30+00:00	84.9%	59.8%	98.5%	36.0%	67.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	84.9%	59.8%	98.5%	36.0%	67.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	84.9%	59.8%	98.5%	36.0%	67.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	84.9%	59.8%	95.2%	36.0%	67.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	84.9%	59.8%	95.2%	36.0%	67.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	84.9%	59.8%	95.2%	36.0%	67.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	87.0%	59.8%	95.2%	25.1%	65.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	87.0%	59.8%	95.2%	25.1%	65.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	87.0%	59.8%	95.2%	25.1%	65.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	87.0%	59.8%	95.2%	25.1%	65.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	87.0%	59.8%	95.2%	25.1%	65.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	87.0%	59.8%	96.5%	25.1%	65.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00	87.0%	59.8%	96.5%	25.1%	65.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	87.0%	59.8%	96.5%	25.1%	65.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	93.6%	59.8%	96.5%	25.1%	65.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	93.6%	59.8%	96.5%	25.1%	65.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	93.6%	59.8%	96.5%	25.1%	65.6%
2026-10-20T04:04:36+00:00	93.6%	59.8%	96.5%	25.1%	65.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	93.6%	59.8%	96.5%	25.1%	65.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	93.6%	59.8%	99.6%	25.1%	65.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	93.6%	59.8%	99.6%	25.1%	65.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	93.6%	59.8%	99.6%	25.1%	65.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	94.6%	59.8%	99.6%	25.1%	36.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	94.6%	59.8%	99.6%	25.1%	36.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	94.6%	59.8%	99.6%	25.1%	36.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	94.6%	59.8%	99.6%	25.1%	36.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:35+00:00	94.6%	74.1%	99.7%	47.1%	36.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	94.6%	74.1%	99.7%	47.1%	36.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	94.6%	74.1%	99.7%	47.1%	36.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	94.6%	74.1%	99.7%	47.1%	36.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00	94.6%	74.4%	99.8%	47.1%	37.9%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	94.6%	74.4%	99.8%	47.1%	37.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	74.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	72.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	67.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	65.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	38%	64.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	64.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗