KMKE / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

71%

68%

17%

12%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.4¢Risks 48.40u

EPSNO 51.6¢Risks 51.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.60u · EPS −51.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	—	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	34.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	16.8%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	2.4%	30.6%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	2.9%	47.9%	3.5%	—	23.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	17.5%	51.5%	8.4%	—	21.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	52.3%	49.2%	38.0%	—	21.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	30.9%	39.0%	10.0%	—	18.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	1.8%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	20.1%	47.5%	12.5%	—	9.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	32.6%	50.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	44.8%	45.6%	23.4%	33.8%	30.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	37.6%	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	41.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	72.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	71%	71.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	70.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	65.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	61.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	62.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261024-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗