KMKE / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

64%

35%

12%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 46.8¢Risks 46.80u

HRESNO 53.2¢Risks 53.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +53.20u · HRES −53.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	—	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	7.3%	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	0.6%	15.5%	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	0.8%	28.1%	0.9%	—	10.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.5%	6.9%	30.4%	2.7%	—	8.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.5%	30.3%	27.7%	18.9%	—	8.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	13.6%	18.9%	3.0%	—	6.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	0.3%	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	7.1%	24.5%	3.8%	—	2.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	13.7%	26.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	21.4%	22.1%	8.3%	14.1%	12.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	16.1%	—	—	15.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	74.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	72.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	68.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	64.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	65.2°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	63.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261024-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗