KMKE / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

92%

91%

86%

71%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 84.5¢Risks 84.55u

EPSNO 15.5¢Risks 15.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +15.45u · EPS −15.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	—	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	61.4%	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	23.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	84.0%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	35.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	3.2%	50.7%	—	—	59.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	59.7%	31.7%	41.6%	—	64.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	37.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	71.5%	44.2%	58.0%	—	63.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	80.5%	84.5%	49.2%	74.9%	—	53.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	75.8%	86.9%	63.3%	81.1%	78.8%	71.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	33.4%	—	—	58.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	74.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	72.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	91%	73.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	71.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	67.9°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	66.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗