KMKE / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

71%

66%

58%

28%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.0¢Risks 55.00u

EPSNO 45.0¢Risks 45.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.00u · EPS −45.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	13.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	31.9%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	20.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	57.1%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	39.3%	0.4%	20.3%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	26.3%	8.7%	13.7%	—	30.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	36.4%	14.4%	23.7%	—	28.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	52.3%	16.4%	38.7%	—	19.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	54.8%	25.5%	45.2%	42.1%	33.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	7.3%	—	—	20.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	74.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	71%	73.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	72.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	71.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	67.9°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	19%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	66.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗