KMKE / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

71%

66%

58%

28%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.0¢Risks 55.00u

EPSNO 45.0¢Risks 45.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.00u · EPS −45.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:18+00:00	63.6%	11.0%	77.3%	39.0%	13.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	63.6%	11.0%	77.3%	39.0%	13.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	63.6%	11.0%	77.3%	39.0%	13.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	63.6%	11.0%	77.3%	39.0%	13.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	63.6%	12.3%	70.8%	39.0%	13.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	63.6%	12.3%	70.8%	39.0%	13.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	63.6%	12.3%	70.8%	39.0%	13.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	63.6%	12.3%	70.8%	39.0%	13.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	29.5%	12.3%	70.8%	39.0%	12.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00	29.5%	12.3%	70.8%	39.0%	12.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	29.5%	12.1%	70.8%	39.0%	12.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	29.5%	12.1%	70.8%	39.0%	12.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	29.5%	12.1%	74.7%	39.0%	12.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00	29.5%	12.1%	74.7%	39.0%	12.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	29.5%	12.1%	74.7%	39.0%	12.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	58.3%	12.1%	74.7%	50.6%	54.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	58.3%	12.1%	74.7%	50.6%	54.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	58.3%	12.1%	74.7%	50.6%	54.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	58.3%	12.1%	74.7%	50.6%	54.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	58.3%	12.1%	74.7%	50.6%	54.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	58.3%	12.1%	75.9%	50.6%	54.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	58.3%	12.1%	75.9%	50.6%	54.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	58.3%	12.1%	75.9%	50.6%	54.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	41.7%	12.1%	75.9%	50.6%	54.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	41.7%	12.1%	75.9%	50.6%	54.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	41.7%	12.1%	75.9%	50.6%	54.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	41.7%	12.1%	75.9%	50.6%	54.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:47+00:00	41.7%	12.1%	75.9%	50.6%	54.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	41.7%	12.1%	61.5%	50.6%	54.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	41.7%	12.1%	61.5%	50.6%	54.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	41.7%	12.1%	61.5%	50.6%	54.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:09+00:00	73.5%	12.1%	61.5%	24.3%	59.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	73.5%	12.1%	61.5%	24.3%	59.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	73.5%	12.1%	61.5%	24.3%	59.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	73.5%	12.1%	61.5%	24.3%	59.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00	73.5%	12.1%	61.5%	24.3%	59.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:52+00:00	73.5%	15.2%	81.0%	24.3%	59.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	73.5%	15.2%	81.0%	24.3%	59.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	73.5%	15.2%	81.0%	24.3%	59.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	63.0%	15.2%	81.0%	24.3%	59.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	63.1%	15.2%	81.0%	24.3%	59.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:30+00:00	63.1%	15.8%	81.0%	24.3%	59.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	63.1%	15.8%	81.0%	24.3%	59.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	63.1%	15.8%	81.0%	24.3%	59.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	63.1%	15.8%	61.8%	24.3%	59.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	63.1%	15.8%	61.8%	24.3%	59.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	63.1%	15.8%	61.8%	24.3%	59.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	71.1%	15.8%	61.8%	29.2%	70.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	71.1%	15.8%	61.8%	29.2%	70.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	71.1%	15.8%	61.8%	29.2%	70.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	71.1%	15.8%	61.8%	29.2%	70.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	71.1%	15.8%	61.8%	29.2%	70.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	71.1%	15.8%	74.7%	29.2%	70.8%
2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00	71.1%	15.8%	74.7%	29.2%	70.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	71.1%	15.8%	74.7%	29.2%	70.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	49.3%	15.8%	74.7%	29.2%	70.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	49.3%	15.8%	74.7%	29.2%	70.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	49.3%	15.8%	74.7%	29.2%	70.8%
2026-10-20T04:04:37+00:00	49.3%	15.8%	74.7%	29.2%	70.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	49.3%	15.8%	74.7%	29.2%	70.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	49.3%	15.8%	68.9%	29.2%	70.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	49.3%	15.8%	68.9%	29.2%	70.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	49.3%	15.8%	68.9%	29.2%	70.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	66.5%	15.8%	68.9%	29.2%	70.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	66.5%	15.8%	68.9%	29.2%	70.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	66.5%	15.8%	68.9%	29.2%	70.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	66.5%	15.8%	68.9%	29.2%	70.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:35+00:00	66.5%	27.7%	82.2%	58.2%	70.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	66.5%	27.7%	82.2%	58.2%	70.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	66.5%	27.7%	82.2%	58.2%	70.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	66.5%	27.7%	82.2%	58.2%	70.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00	66.5%	27.7%	82.3%	58.2%	70.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	66.5%	27.7%	82.3%	58.2%	70.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	74.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	71%	73.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	72.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	71.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	67.9°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	19%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	66.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗