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KMKE / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
75%
ICON
67%
AIFS
66%
EPS
66%
HRES
44%
Consensus
65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 59.6¢Risks 59.60u
VS
HRESNO 40.4¢Risks 40.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.40u · HRES −40.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 81.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 97.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 90.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 81.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 93.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 94.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 89.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 48.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 38.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 42.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 56.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 47.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 71.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 62.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 52.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 52.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 58.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 58.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 64.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 65.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 69.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 70.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 64.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 80.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 75.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 53.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 65.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:005.6%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0039.5%———24.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0011.5%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0027.0%———62.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0052.1%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0063.1%———52.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0060.0%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0055.8%———52.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0077.6%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0029.7%———58.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0031.1%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0081.1%———58.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0052.1%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0097.3%———64.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0047.9%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0061.5%———65.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0082.8%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0090.7%———69.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0081.5%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0093.4%———70.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0099.0%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0094.0%———64.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0089.1%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0067.6%—38.4%—80.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0045.2%—42.9%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0041.0%———75.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0023.8%—56.8%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0030.7%—77.5%—53.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0017.6%—47.4%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0060.9%—10.1%—65.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0014.0%—10.3%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0038.7%48.6%6.2%71.2%33.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0017.1%—1.8%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 275%59.9°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON67%60.9°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single66%58.9°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble66%59.3°F6.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend54%57.0°F5.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES44%55.6°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261027-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 57°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗