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KMKE / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
75%
ICON
67%
AIFS
66%
EPS
66%
HRES
44%
Consensus
65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 59.6¢Risks 59.60u
VS
HRESNO 40.4¢Risks 40.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.40u · HRES −40.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 66.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:35+00:00AIFS Single: 66.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 66.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 66.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00AIFS Single: 66.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00AIFS Single: 66.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00AIFS Single: 66.2% · 2026-10-20T15:31:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.1% · 2026-10-20T15:31:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.8% · 2026-10-20T15:31:56+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:35+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T15:31:56+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:35+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-20T15:31:56+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 13:1010-20 15:31
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T15:31:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:35+00:0066.2%65.0%74.8%44.4%67.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0066.2%65.0%74.8%44.4%67.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:0066.2%65.0%74.8%44.4%67.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0066.2%65.0%74.8%44.4%67.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:0066.2%65.0%74.8%44.4%67.0%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:0066.2%65.0%74.8%44.4%67.0%
2026-10-20T15:31:56+00:0066.2%66.1%74.8%44.4%67.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 275%59.9°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON67%60.9°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single66%58.9°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble66%59.3°F6.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend54%57.0°F5.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES44%55.6°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261027-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 57°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗