KMSP / Tue Sep 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Sep 07 · 14:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

34%

24%

16%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 24.3¢Risks 24.35u

ICONNO 75.6¢Risks 75.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +75.65u · ICON −75.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-08-24T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-08-25T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	29.4%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	35.7%	—	—	44.7%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	88.8%	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	23.3%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	0.0%	0.4%	—	34.3%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	96.5%	94.1%	—	31.7%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	51.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	85.8%	23.9%	—	49.2%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	88.0%	—	—	24.1%
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	41.3%	82.6%	96.6%	—	31.6%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	45.9%	—	—	37.2%
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	29.3%	85.7%	91.0%	—	30.8%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	3.0%	94.8%	—	—	28.1%
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	29.9%	96.6%	8.0%	—	39.6%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	41.1%	99.2%	—	—	39.3%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	34.7%	53.7%	74.1%	—	33.9%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	16.5%	82.9%	—	—	31.8%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	10.7%	91.4%	17.7%	—	40.4%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	3.4%	85.4%	—	—	29.1%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	3.0%	83.7%	57.2%	—	52.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	5.5%	97.8%	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	16.2%	86.3%	8.1%	—	17.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	6.3%	98.4%	0.0%	—	12.9%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	9.0%	75.8%	13.4%	0.3%	12.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	6.6%	80.9%	12.6%	—	11.9%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	1.7%	57.4%	0.6%	0.0%	15.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	3.5%	70.9%	1.8%	—	15.8%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	2.2%	88.7%	7.9%	0.0%	24.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	4.7%	33.8%	3.0%	—	10.4%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.6%	2.3%	2.9%	0.0%	6.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.1%	6.0%	41.0%	—	14.4%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	42.1%	40.6%	0.2%	3.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.9%	64.5%	24.1%	—	4.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	57%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
RRFS	53%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	14%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	1%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260908-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 86°F · Tue Sep 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗