Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 86°F
Who takes which side?
Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.
Head-to-head preview
ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.
HRES +75.65u · ICON −75.65u
These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →
Probability history
Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.
Forecasts & evidence
| MODEL | YES | MEAN | SPREAD σ | INITIALIZATION UTC | BRIER ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWS forecast | 57% | — | — | Not retained | Pending |
| RRFS | 53% | — | — | Not retained | Pending |
| IFS HRES | 48% | — | — | Not retained | Pending |
| WeatherNext 2 | 34% | — | — | Not retained | Pending |
| AIFS Single | 24% | — | — | Not retained | Pending |
| IFS Ensemble | 16% | — | — | Not retained | Pending |
| National Blend | 14% | — | — | Not retained | Pending |
| ICON | 1% | — | — | Not retained | Pending |
Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.
High ≥ 86°F · KMSP
Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.
WP-KMSP-20260908-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC
Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 86°F · Tue Sep 8
Original prop, full history & receipt ↗