KMSP / Tue Sep 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Sep 08 · 06:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

24%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 22.8¢Risks 22.75u

ICONNO 77.2¢Risks 77.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +77.25u · ICON −77.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-08-24T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-08-25T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	26.3%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	30.3%	—	—	39.0%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	28.2%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	85.5%	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	35.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	18.4%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	0.0%	0.2%	—	28.1%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	94.9%	91.6%	—	25.4%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	81.1%	18.4%	—	41.7%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	83.6%	—	—	18.4%
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	33.7%	77.0%	94.7%	—	24.8%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	38.0%	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	22.5%	80.5%	87.1%	—	23.8%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	1.8%	92.2%	—	—	21.4%
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	22.8%	94.6%	5.2%	—	31.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	32.6%	98.6%	—	—	31.0%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	26.6%	44.5%	66.1%	—	25.9%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	11.3%	76.2%	—	—	23.8%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	6.8%	86.9%	12.1%	—	31.3%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	1.9%	78.9%	—	—	21.1%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	1.6%	76.5%	46.9%	—	41.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	3.1%	96.0%	—	—	24.5%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	10.4%	79.4%	4.7%	—	11.4%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	3.5%	96.9%	0.0%	—	7.9%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	5.1%	65.9%	8.1%	0.1%	7.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	3.5%	71.7%	7.4%	—	7.0%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.7%	45.0%	0.2%	0.0%	9.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.6%	59.0%	0.8%	—	9.2%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.9%	80.9%	4.0%	0.0%	14.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.1%	22.1%	1.3%	—	5.4%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	0.9%	1.2%	0.0%	2.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	2.7%	27.2%	—	7.5%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	27.6%	26.3%	0.1%	1.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.9%	48.4%	13.2%	—	1.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	45%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
RRFS	24%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	10%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	6%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	<1%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260908-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 07 · 15:36 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Tue Sep 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗