KMSP / Tue Sep 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Sep 08 · 06:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

24%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 22.8¢Risks 22.75u

ICONNO 77.2¢Risks 77.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +77.25u · ICON −77.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T15:36:57+00:00	17.6%	9.6%	23.9%	36.2%	0.4%
2026-09-07T16:22:04+00:00	17.6%	9.6%	23.9%	36.2%	0.4%
2026-09-07T17:07:10+00:00	17.6%	9.6%	20.4%	36.2%	0.4%
2026-09-07T17:52:15+00:00	17.6%	9.6%	20.4%	36.2%	0.4%
2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00	17.6%	9.6%	20.4%	36.2%	0.4%
2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00	17.6%	9.6%	20.4%	36.2%	0.4%
2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00	20.9%	9.6%	20.4%	44.2%	0.8%
2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00	20.9%	9.6%	20.4%	44.2%	0.8%
2026-09-07T21:37:41+00:00	20.9%	9.6%	20.4%	44.2%	0.8%
2026-09-07T22:22:46+00:00	20.9%	9.6%	20.4%	44.2%	0.8%
2026-09-07T23:07:51+00:00	20.9%	9.6%	15.7%	44.2%	0.8%
2026-09-07T23:52:56+00:00	20.9%	9.6%	15.7%	44.2%	0.8%
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00	20.9%	9.6%	15.7%	44.2%	0.8%
2026-09-08T01:23:06+00:00	24.4%	9.6%	15.7%	44.2%	0.8%
2026-09-08T02:08:11+00:00	24.4%	9.6%	15.7%	44.2%	0.8%
2026-09-08T02:53:16+00:00	24.4%	9.1%	15.7%	44.2%	0.8%
2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00	24.4%	9.1%	15.7%	44.7%	0.8%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00	24.4%	9.1%	15.7%	44.7%	0.8%
2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00	24.4%	9.1%	13.7%	44.7%	0.8%
2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00	24.4%	9.1%	13.7%	44.7%	0.8%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00	24.4%	9.1%	13.7%	44.7%	0.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	45%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
RRFS	24%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	10%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	6%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	<1%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260908-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 07 · 15:36 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Tue Sep 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗