KMSP / Wed Sep 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Sep 08 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

84%

66%

65%

59%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 71.5¢Risks 71.55u

WN2NO 28.4¢Risks 28.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +28.45u · WN2 −28.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	—	—	—	61.1%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	75.9%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	89.5%	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	98.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	63.0%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	62.8%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	56.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	27.7%	—	—	68.8%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	97.7%	70.8%	—	63.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	70.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	6.6%	96.9%	99.5%	—	79.0%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	98.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	76.1%	28.9%	85.4%	72.4%	—	77.2%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	99.5%	—	—	46.9%
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	69.8%	90.7%	82.1%	—	68.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	52.4%	—	—	50.8%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	39.3%	27.9%	82.2%	—	44.2%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	28.8%	74.0%	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	20.8%	84.4%	37.1%	—	46.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	52.7%	90.8%	—	—	33.4%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	49.1%	98.0%	56.4%	—	44.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	21.0%	98.3%	—	—	34.3%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	25.5%	91.8%	51.0%	—	23.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	21.9%	93.0%	—	—	34.4%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	19.0%	79.5%	34.0%	—	22.7%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	16.3%	62.5%	—	—	24.5%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	21.3%	94.1%	65.9%	—	30.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	32.6%	94.6%	14.8%	—	43.3%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	41.9%	50.0%	99.8%	74.0%	11.0%	41.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	42.8%	98.4%	66.4%	—	37.0%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	81.8%	98.9%	77.3%	37.7%	52.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	70.9%	98.6%	81.8%	—	46.1%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	56.7%	70.5%	98.9%	74.9%	16.5%	33.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	63.7%	98.9%	55.6%	—	32.5%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	62.8%	57.2%	97.3%	58.6%	10.2%	44.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	61.9%	97.8%	53.0%	—	36.6%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	63.9%	98.8%	60.9%	20.3%	31.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	75.9%	95.5%	69.0%	—	56.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
RRFS	74%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	74%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	65%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260909-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 78°F · Wed Sep 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗