KMSP / Wed Sep 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Sep 09 · 06:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

66%

36%

34%

30%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.4¢Risks 51.45u

ICONNO 48.6¢Risks 48.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.55u · ICON −48.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	83.1%	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	44.6%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	17.6%	—	—	56.1%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	94.9%	57.7%	—	50.0%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	80.1%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	3.1%	93.4%	98.6%	—	67.0%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	95.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	17.4%	74.9%	58.3%	—	64.2%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	98.7%	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	54.8%	82.1%	69.8%	—	53.2%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	36.4%	—	—	34.9%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	24.5%	15.7%	69.2%	—	28.6%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	16.2%	58.5%	—	—	26.0%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	10.5%	71.6%	22.1%	—	29.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	35.1%	81.0%	—	—	19.0%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	31.4%	94.5%	38.2%	—	27.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	10.0%	94.9%	—	—	19.0%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	12.6%	81.7%	32.1%	—	11.1%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	10.0%	83.6%	—	—	18.3%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	8.2%	62.2%	17.6%	—	10.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	6.5%	41.6%	—	—	11.1%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	9.0%	84.5%	44.5%	—	14.3%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	15.4%	85.2%	5.4%	—	23.1%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	28.0%	99.0%	52.3%	3.5%	21.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	21.6%	93.8%	42.8%	—	17.5%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	61.1%	95.1%	55.0%	17.4%	28.7%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	46.1%	94.0%	60.2%	—	22.8%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	30.7%	44.6%	94.7%	50.0%	5.0%	13.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	36.3%	94.6%	28.8%	—	12.4%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	29.3%	88.5%	30.5%	2.3%	19.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	38.1%	32.5%	89.5%	24.8%	—	13.6%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	33.1%	92.9%	30.3%	5.2%	10.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	45.1%	80.8%	37.0%	—	25.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	73%	82.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	80.8°F	3.3°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	80.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-09 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	78.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	77.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
ICON	30%	77.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260909-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 08 · 14:54 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 80°F · Wed Sep 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗