KMSP / Thu Sep 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Sep 10 · 02:25 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

56%

49%

38%

37%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 59.9¢Risks 59.95u

ICONNO 40.1¢Risks 40.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.05u · ICON −40.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	28.0%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	29.8%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	3.1%	—	—	27.2%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	—	—	—	30.7%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	23.6%	—	—	37.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	74.6%	—	—	19.4%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	43.0%	1.1%	—	14.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	1.6%	37.8%	33.0%	—	24.9%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	66.3%	28.3%	29.6%	55.3%	—	53.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	27.4%	68.4%	24.2%	—	42.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	66.6%	—	—	27.7%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	17.8%	89.5%	40.1%	—	45.0%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	11.1%	93.6%	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	30.7%	90.6%	61.3%	—	30.7%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	32.6%	82.8%	—	—	35.1%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	37.3%	80.4%	10.6%	—	45.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	36.1%	69.1%	—	—	45.3%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	40.4%	91.8%	37.6%	—	38.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	44.0%	87.6%	—	—	37.2%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	23.5%	85.5%	52.1%	—	38.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	26.2%	92.0%	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	26.4%	79.4%	45.6%	0.0%	38.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	24.9%	81.7%	0.0%	—	38.9%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	25.1%	91.0%	41.9%	0.0%	38.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	47.6%	25.3%	95.2%	60.7%	—	31.4%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	34.2%	95.7%	56.2%	6.7%	46.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	62.7%	39.8%	97.8%	69.8%	—	51.3%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	54.0%	97.8%	61.9%	12.0%	46.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	55.6%	61.0%	96.8%	56.9%	—	55.6%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	65.5%	88.5%	60.1%	22.2%	68.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	70.2%	87.2%	50.0%	—	38.1%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	56.3%	86.6%	33.1%	14.2%	26.3%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	63.0%	80.8%	30.9%	—	32.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	83.5°F	4.2°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	80.9°F	1.9°F	2026-09-09 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-09 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	80.1°F	3.8°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	79.4°F	2.8°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	78.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
ICON	37%	78.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260910-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 80°F · Thu Sep 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗