KMSP / Thu Sep 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Sep 10 · 02:25 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

56%

49%

38%

37%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 59.9¢Risks 59.95u

ICONNO 40.1¢Risks 40.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.05u · ICON −40.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T02:25:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:03:25+00:00	64.7%	44.7%	36.1%	35.7%	42.8%
2026-09-07T14:25:59+00:00	64.7%	44.7%	36.1%	35.7%	42.8%
2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00	64.7%	44.7%	36.1%	35.7%	42.8%
2026-09-07T14:51:46+00:00	64.7%	44.7%	36.1%	35.7%	42.8%
2026-09-07T14:51:49+00:00	64.7%	44.7%	36.1%	35.7%	42.8%
2026-09-07T15:36:57+00:00	64.7%	44.7%	36.1%	35.7%	42.8%
2026-09-07T16:22:04+00:00	64.7%	44.7%	36.1%	35.7%	42.8%
2026-09-07T17:07:10+00:00	64.7%	44.7%	37.1%	35.7%	42.8%
2026-09-07T17:52:15+00:00	64.7%	44.7%	37.1%	35.7%	42.8%
2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00	64.7%	44.7%	37.1%	35.7%	42.8%
2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00	64.7%	44.7%	37.1%	35.7%	42.8%
2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00	63.9%	44.7%	37.1%	53.9%	25.8%
2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00	63.9%	44.7%	37.1%	53.9%	25.8%
2026-09-07T21:37:41+00:00	63.9%	44.7%	37.1%	53.9%	25.8%
2026-09-07T22:22:46+00:00	63.9%	44.7%	37.1%	53.9%	25.8%
2026-09-07T23:07:51+00:00	63.9%	44.7%	34.1%	53.9%	25.8%
2026-09-07T23:52:56+00:00	63.9%	44.7%	34.1%	53.9%	25.8%
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00	63.9%	44.7%	34.1%	53.9%	25.8%
2026-09-08T01:23:06+00:00	78.2%	44.7%	34.1%	53.9%	25.8%
2026-09-08T02:08:11+00:00	78.2%	44.7%	34.1%	53.9%	25.8%
2026-09-08T02:53:16+00:00	78.2%	43.4%	34.1%	53.9%	25.8%
2026-09-08T14:54:41+00:00	78.5%	45.7%	35.5%	36.9%	20.5%
2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00	78.5%	45.7%	35.5%	36.9%	20.5%
2026-09-08T15:49:10+00:00	78.5%	45.7%	35.5%	36.9%	20.5%
2026-09-08T16:00:09+00:00	78.5%	45.7%	35.5%	36.9%	20.5%
2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00	78.5%	45.7%	35.5%	36.9%	20.5%
2026-09-08T17:06:45+00:00	78.5%	45.7%	36.5%	36.9%	20.5%
2026-09-08T17:20:30+00:00	78.5%	45.7%	36.5%	36.9%	20.5%
2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00	78.5%	45.7%	36.5%	36.9%	20.5%
2026-09-08T18:50:40+00:00	78.5%	45.7%	36.5%	36.9%	20.5%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00	83.0%	45.7%	36.5%	55.7%	20.5%
2026-09-08T20:20:51+00:00	83.0%	45.7%	36.5%	55.7%	20.5%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00	83.0%	45.7%	36.5%	55.7%	20.5%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00	83.0%	45.7%	36.5%	55.7%	20.5%
2026-09-08T22:36:05+00:00	83.0%	45.7%	36.5%	55.7%	20.5%
2026-09-08T23:21:11+00:00	83.0%	45.7%	42.1%	55.7%	20.5%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00	83.0%	45.7%	42.1%	55.7%	20.5%
2026-09-09T00:51:23+00:00	83.0%	45.7%	42.1%	55.7%	20.5%
2026-09-09T01:36:28+00:00	78.5%	45.7%	42.1%	55.7%	20.5%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00	78.5%	45.7%	42.1%	55.7%	20.5%
2026-09-09T03:06:40+00:00	78.5%	47.0%	42.1%	55.7%	20.6%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00	78.5%	47.0%	42.1%	55.7%	20.6%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00	78.5%	47.0%	42.1%	55.7%	20.6%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00	78.5%	47.0%	43.2%	55.7%	20.6%
2026-09-09T06:07:03+00:00	78.5%	47.0%	43.2%	55.7%	20.6%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00	78.5%	47.0%	43.2%	55.7%	20.6%
2026-09-09T07:37:21+00:00	83.1%	47.0%	43.2%	62.5%	21.5%
2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00	83.1%	47.0%	43.2%	62.5%	21.5%
2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00	83.1%	47.0%	43.2%	62.5%	21.5%
2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00	83.1%	47.0%	43.2%	62.5%	21.5%
2026-09-09T10:37:43+00:00	83.1%	47.0%	43.2%	62.5%	21.5%
2026-09-09T11:22:48+00:00	83.1%	47.0%	45.3%	62.5%	21.5%
2026-09-09T12:07:55+00:00	83.1%	47.0%	45.3%	62.5%	21.5%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	83.1%	47.0%	45.3%	62.5%	21.5%
2026-09-09T13:38:05+00:00	85.9%	47.0%	45.3%	62.5%	21.5%
2026-09-09T14:23:20+00:00	86.0%	47.0%	45.3%	62.5%	21.5%
2026-09-09T15:08:27+00:00	86.0%	43.2%	45.3%	62.5%	21.5%
2026-09-09T15:53:35+00:00	86.0%	43.2%	45.3%	62.5%	21.5%
2026-09-09T16:38:40+00:00	86.0%	43.2%	45.3%	62.5%	36.8%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	86.0%	43.2%	39.5%	62.5%	36.8%
2026-09-09T18:08:53+00:00	86.0%	43.2%	39.5%	62.5%	36.8%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	86.0%	43.2%	39.5%	62.5%	36.8%
2026-09-09T19:39:06+00:00	84.9%	43.2%	39.5%	56.3%	36.8%
2026-09-09T20:24:14+00:00	84.9%	43.2%	39.5%	56.3%	36.8%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00	84.9%	43.2%	39.5%	56.3%	36.8%
2026-09-09T21:54:24+00:00	84.9%	43.2%	39.5%	56.3%	36.8%
2026-09-09T22:39:32+00:00	84.9%	43.2%	39.5%	56.3%	36.8%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00	84.9%	43.2%	38.4%	56.3%	36.8%
2026-09-10T00:09:42+00:00	84.9%	43.2%	38.4%	56.3%	36.8%
2026-09-10T00:54:49+00:00	84.9%	43.2%	38.4%	56.3%	36.8%
2026-09-10T01:39:56+00:00	83.1%	43.2%	38.4%	56.3%	36.8%
2026-09-10T02:25:02+00:00	83.1%	48.6%	38.4%	56.3%	36.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	83.5°F	4.2°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	80.9°F	1.9°F	2026-09-09 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-09 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	80.1°F	3.8°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	79.4°F	2.8°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	78.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
ICON	37%	78.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260910-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 80°F · Thu Sep 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗