KMSP / Thu Sep 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Sep 10 · 06:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

36%

23%

20%

16%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 42.5¢Risks 42.45u

ICONNO 57.5¢Risks 57.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +57.55u · ICON −57.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	20.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	1.5%	—	—	18.1%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	14.8%	—	—	26.2%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	62.6%	—	—	11.4%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	29.8%	0.4%	—	8.2%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.6%	24.9%	21.0%	—	14.8%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	51.5%	16.9%	17.9%	40.2%	—	38.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	15.9%	53.2%	13.6%	—	27.4%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	50.8%	—	—	15.8%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	9.0%	79.9%	25.1%	—	29.3%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	4.9%	86.3%	—	—	7.2%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	17.2%	81.0%	43.9%	—	17.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	18.4%	69.0%	—	—	20.2%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	21.6%	65.3%	4.3%	—	28.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	20.3%	50.9%	—	—	27.6%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	23.2%	81.7%	21.0%	—	21.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	25.7%	74.3%	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	10.8%	70.6%	32.1%	—	21.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	12.1%	81.0%	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	11.9%	60.8%	25.5%	0.0%	19.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	10.7%	63.3%	0.0%	—	19.8%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	10.5%	77.6%	21.5%	0.0%	19.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	10.2%	85.5%	37.0%	—	13.9%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	15.1%	86.3%	32.0%	1.7%	23.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	37.3%	18.2%	91.3%	44.9%	—	26.9%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	28.4%	91.1%	35.6%	3.2%	22.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	33.8%	87.5%	30.0%	—	28.8%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	37.2%	68.2%	31.8%	6.8%	40.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	41.0%	64.8%	22.4%	—	14.4%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	26.3%	62.4%	11.0%	3.1%	7.7%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	30.9%	51.6%	9.2%	—	9.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	83.5°F	4.2°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	82.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-10 02:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	81.0°F	1.9°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	80.1°F	3.8°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	79.4°F	2.8°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	78.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
ICON	16%	78.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260910-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 82°F · Thu Sep 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗