KMSP / Thu Sep 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 08 · 06:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 11.2¢Risks 11.20u

EPSNO 88.8¢Risks 88.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +88.80u · EPS −88.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	9.7%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	5.7%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	4.7%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	5.4%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	3.1%	—	—	7.3%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	30.0%	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	7.9%	0.0%	—	1.1%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	5.5%	4.2%	—	2.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	2.8%	3.0%	11.4%	—	10.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	2.3%	17.9%	1.8%	—	5.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	15.8%	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.9%	41.7%	4.3%	—	5.6%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.3%	50.9%	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	2.1%	41.3%	10.5%	—	2.1%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.1%	26.4%	—	—	2.5%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.6%	22.3%	0.2%	—	4.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	2.2%	12.2%	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.5%	37.6%	2.1%	—	2.3%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	2.8%	27.4%	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.6%	22.7%	4.0%	—	1.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	0.6%	32.6%	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.5%	13.7%	2.1%	0.0%	1.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.4%	14.1%	0.0%	—	1.2%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	0.3%	24.2%	1.2%	0.0%	1.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.3%	32.5%	3.3%	—	0.5%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.5%	32.0%	2.1%	0.0%	1.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.6%	39.8%	4.0%	—	1.3%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	1.2%	36.8%	2.0%	0.0%	0.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.5%	27.6%	1.2%	—	1.1%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.6%	8.9%	1.1%	0.1%	1.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.7%	6.5%	0.4%	—	0.2%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	4.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	2.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	22%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
RRFS	6%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	2%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	<1%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260910-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 08 · 05:08 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Thu Sep 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗