KMSP / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Sep 11 · 06:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

60%

41%

24%

15%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 48.2¢Risks 48.20u

ICONNO 51.8¢Risks 51.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +51.80u · ICON −51.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	98.7%	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	5.1%	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	9.0%	—	—	18.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	21.4%	0.4%	—	25.7%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	4.9%	44.9%	42.0%	—	22.6%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	9.7%	92.2%	21.6%	—	33.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	0.9%	98.2%	46.8%	—	26.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	99.5%	—	—	9.9%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	14.3%	93.2%	12.0%	—	34.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	1.8%	83.3%	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	6.8%	30.7%	15.1%	—	16.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	4.3%	43.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	4.6%	98.1%	18.4%	—	24.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	21.0%	3.8%	98.7%	—	—	19.0%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	13.6%	96.5%	23.2%	—	22.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	11.0%	97.9%	—	—	19.0%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	7.1%	99.4%	33.0%	—	17.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	16.3%	99.3%	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	7.7%	97.1%	34.1%	—	31.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	9.7%	96.2%	0.0%	—	20.6%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	18.3%	99.0%	31.0%	1.2%	19.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	19.9%	92.2%	29.3%	—	29.3%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	33.1%	88.2%	34.2%	3.0%	55.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	20.0%	93.6%	33.7%	—	51.3%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	33.1%	97.4%	33.1%	3.7%	44.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	50.0%	98.2%	36.3%	—	41.7%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	34.5%	95.6%	41.4%	34.5%	75.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	28.5%	97.3%	38.1%	—	56.0%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.7%	23.8%	98.2%	30.3%	17.1%	45.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	54.9%	91.4%	20.3%	—	48.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	81%	89.2°F	4.2°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	86.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	86.0°F	2.0°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	86.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-11 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	84.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	83.4°F	3.0°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260911-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 07 · 14:25 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗