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KMSP / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Sep 11 · 06:59 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
47%
HRES
21%
WN2
8%
EPS
2%
ICON
1%
Consensus
4%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 24.2¢Risks 24.20u
VS
ICONNO 75.8¢Risks 75.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +75.80u · ICON −75.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.6% · 2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.1% · 2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.2% · 2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.7% · 2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.2% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 94.4% · 2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.8% · 2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.4% · 2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.9% · 2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.7% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.4% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 74.2% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 87.2% · 2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 90.3% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 95.9% · 2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 74.2% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 54.3% · 2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.3% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.5% · 2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 87.6% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 90.0% · 2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 79.7% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 84.8% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 93.3% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 91.6% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 78.7% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 74.2% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 87.9% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 58.4% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 47.5% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 59.0% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 72.7% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 75.8% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 60.1% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 66.2% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 69.7% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 38.6% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.5% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.0% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 18.9% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.2% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.8% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.4% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.4% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.1% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.6% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.8% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.0% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.9% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.3% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.7% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.0% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.7% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.4% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.8% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 3.2% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.6% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.8% · 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.7% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.8% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.1% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.0% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.3% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.0% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.4% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.2% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.6% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.4% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:0008-27 12:0009-04 06:0009-11 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:000.1%————0.0%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:001.4%—————
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:0013.1%————7.1%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:0043.6%—————
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:0042.1%————5.9%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:002.5%—————
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:0011.8%————8.1%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:002.3%————6.4%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:007.5%—————
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:001.3%————7.5%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:007.5%—————
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:005.9%————3.8%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:0011.2%—————
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:000.2%————1.9%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:006.4%————2.5%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:002.5%—————
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:000.5%————2.9%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:000.8%—————
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:007.1%————1.5%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:0022.2%————2.7%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:003.8%—1.1%———
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:003.9%————3.9%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:001.1%—————
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:000.4%—94.4%——0.8%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:000.1%—41.8%———
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:000.2%—1.1%——1.0%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:000.1%—8.4%———
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:000.3%—2.2%——5.8%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:0016.7%—6.9%———
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:003.1%—6.7%0.0%—8.7%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:009.8%—2.8%———
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:0018.9%0.9%19.4%17.5%—6.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:0014.7%—0.3%———
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:006.3%1.9%74.2%6.0%—11.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:008.9%—87.2%———
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:004.5%0.1%90.3%18.9%—7.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:003.6%—95.9%——1.8%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:003.1%2.8%74.2%2.2%—10.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:001.1%0.1%54.3%——5.1%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.9%8.3%2.8%—3.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:002.0%0.4%14.5%——0.0%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:003.2%0.4%87.6%3.4%—5.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:004.0%0.3%90.0%——3.4%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:001.5%1.9%79.7%4.4%—4.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:001.8%1.3%84.8%——3.0%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:003.0%0.6%93.3%7.1%—2.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:005.0%2.0%91.6%——3.3%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:004.2%0.6%78.7%6.6%—5.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:003.1%0.8%74.2%0.0%—2.6%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:003.8%1.9%87.9%4.8%0.0%2.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:003.7%2.0%58.4%4.0%—4.0%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:006.7%4.6%47.5%4.9%0.1%13.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:008.7%1.6%59.0%4.3%—10.3%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:005.7%3.7%72.7%3.7%0.1%7.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:008.1%8.1%75.8%4.0%—5.4%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:008.3%3.2%60.1%4.7%3.2%22.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:006.0%1.8%66.2%3.4%—8.6%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:007.1%1.1%69.7%1.8%0.6%4.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:000.1%6.3%38.6%0.6%—4.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single47%89.2°F4.2°F2026-09-10 18:00Pending
IFS HRES21%86.5°F3.8°F2026-09-10 12:00Pending
NWS forecast10%86.0°F2.8°F2026-09-11 02:00Pending
WeatherNext 28%84.7°F3.4°F2026-09-10 18:00Pending
National Blend4%86.0°F2.0°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%83.4°F3.0°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending
ICON1%82.0°F3.4°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260911-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Minneapolis · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗