KMSP / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Sep 11 · 06:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

21%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 24.2¢Risks 24.20u

ICONNO 75.8¢Risks 75.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +75.80u · ICON −75.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T06:59:09+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:03:25+00:00	14.7%	0.8%	4.5%	6.6%	1.9%
2026-09-07T14:25:59+00:00	14.7%	0.8%	4.5%	6.6%	1.9%
2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00	14.7%	0.8%	4.5%	6.6%	1.9%
2026-09-07T14:51:46+00:00	14.7%	0.8%	4.5%	6.6%	1.9%
2026-09-07T14:51:49+00:00	14.7%	0.8%	4.5%	6.6%	1.9%
2026-09-07T15:36:57+00:00	14.7%	0.8%	4.5%	6.6%	1.9%
2026-09-07T16:22:04+00:00	14.7%	0.8%	4.5%	6.6%	1.9%
2026-09-07T17:07:10+00:00	14.7%	0.8%	3.6%	6.6%	1.9%
2026-09-07T17:52:15+00:00	14.7%	0.8%	3.6%	6.6%	1.9%
2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00	14.7%	0.8%	3.6%	6.6%	1.9%
2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00	14.7%	0.8%	3.6%	6.6%	1.9%
2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00	20.1%	0.8%	3.6%	11.6%	1.4%
2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00	20.1%	0.8%	3.6%	11.6%	1.4%
2026-09-07T21:37:41+00:00	20.1%	0.8%	3.6%	11.6%	1.4%
2026-09-07T22:22:46+00:00	20.1%	0.8%	3.6%	11.6%	1.4%
2026-09-07T23:07:51+00:00	20.1%	0.8%	2.9%	11.6%	1.4%
2026-09-07T23:52:56+00:00	20.1%	0.8%	2.9%	11.6%	1.4%
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00	20.1%	0.8%	2.9%	11.6%	1.4%
2026-09-08T01:23:06+00:00	23.8%	0.8%	2.9%	11.6%	1.4%
2026-09-08T02:08:11+00:00	23.8%	0.8%	2.9%	11.6%	1.4%
2026-09-08T02:53:16+00:00	23.8%	0.8%	2.9%	11.6%	1.4%
2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00	23.8%	0.8%	2.9%	14.4%	1.4%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00	23.8%	0.8%	2.9%	14.4%	1.4%
2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00	23.8%	0.8%	5.0%	14.4%	1.4%
2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00	23.8%	0.8%	5.0%	14.4%	1.4%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00	23.8%	0.8%	5.0%	14.4%	1.4%
2026-09-08T07:23:51+00:00	13.8%	0.8%	5.0%	4.2%	1.7%
2026-09-08T08:08:59+00:00	13.8%	0.8%	5.0%	4.2%	1.7%
2026-09-08T08:54:03+00:00	13.8%	0.8%	5.0%	4.2%	1.7%
2026-09-08T09:39:08+00:00	13.8%	0.8%	5.0%	4.2%	1.7%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00	22.4%	0.4%	4.0%	11.8%	0.8%
2026-09-08T20:20:51+00:00	22.4%	0.4%	4.0%	11.8%	0.8%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00	22.4%	0.4%	4.0%	11.8%	0.8%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00	22.4%	0.4%	4.0%	11.8%	0.8%
2026-09-08T22:36:05+00:00	22.4%	0.4%	4.0%	11.8%	0.8%
2026-09-08T23:21:11+00:00	22.4%	0.4%	8.1%	11.8%	0.8%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00	22.4%	0.4%	8.1%	11.8%	0.8%
2026-09-09T00:51:23+00:00	22.4%	0.4%	8.1%	11.8%	0.8%
2026-09-09T01:36:28+00:00	30.4%	0.4%	8.1%	11.8%	0.8%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00	30.4%	0.4%	8.1%	11.8%	0.8%
2026-09-09T03:06:40+00:00	30.4%	0.4%	8.1%	11.8%	0.8%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00	30.4%	0.4%	8.1%	11.8%	0.8%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00	30.4%	0.4%	8.1%	11.8%	0.8%
2026-09-09T11:22:48+00:00	28.8%	0.4%	7.2%	10.6%	0.3%
2026-09-09T12:07:55+00:00	28.8%	0.4%	7.2%	10.6%	0.3%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	28.8%	0.4%	7.2%	10.6%	0.3%
2026-09-09T15:08:27+00:00	26.4%	0.6%	7.2%	10.6%	0.3%
2026-09-09T16:38:40+00:00	26.4%	0.6%	7.2%	10.6%	1.4%
2026-09-10T02:25:02+00:00	31.2%	0.6%	3.8%	7.8%	1.4%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	31.2%	0.6%	4.8%	7.8%	2.6%
2026-09-10T06:10:37+00:00	31.2%	0.6%	4.8%	7.8%	2.6%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00	31.2%	0.6%	4.8%	7.8%	2.6%
2026-09-10T07:40:50+00:00	40.5%	0.6%	4.8%	34.6%	2.6%
2026-09-10T08:26:02+00:00	40.5%	0.6%	4.8%	34.6%	2.6%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00	40.5%	0.6%	4.8%	34.6%	2.6%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00	40.5%	0.6%	4.8%	34.6%	2.6%
2026-09-10T10:41:15+00:00	40.5%	0.6%	4.8%	34.6%	2.6%
2026-09-10T11:26:21+00:00	40.5%	2.8%	4.9%	34.6%	2.6%
2026-09-10T12:11:28+00:00	40.5%	2.8%	4.9%	34.6%	2.6%
2026-09-10T12:56:32+00:00	40.5%	2.8%	4.9%	34.6%	2.6%
2026-09-10T13:41:36+00:00	46.2%	2.8%	4.9%	34.6%	2.6%
2026-09-10T14:26:56+00:00	45.2%	2.9%	4.9%	34.6%	2.6%
2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:00	45.2%	2.9%	4.9%	34.6%	2.6%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00	45.2%	2.9%	4.9%	34.6%	2.6%
2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00	45.2%	2.9%	4.9%	34.6%	2.8%
2026-09-10T17:27:22+00:00	45.2%	2.9%	3.6%	34.6%	2.8%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00	45.2%	2.9%	3.6%	34.6%	2.8%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00	45.2%	2.9%	3.6%	34.6%	2.8%
2026-09-10T19:42:40+00:00	40.5%	2.9%	3.6%	21.4%	2.8%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00	40.5%	2.9%	3.6%	21.4%	2.8%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00	40.5%	2.9%	3.6%	21.4%	2.8%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00	40.5%	2.9%	3.6%	21.4%	2.8%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00	40.5%	2.9%	3.6%	21.4%	2.8%
2026-09-11T03:13:37+00:00	47.1%	2.1%	2.5%	21.4%	2.8%
2026-09-11T03:58:46+00:00	47.1%	2.1%	2.5%	21.4%	2.8%
2026-09-11T04:43:51+00:00	47.1%	2.1%	2.5%	21.4%	1.3%
2026-09-11T05:28:57+00:00	47.1%	2.1%	7.8%	21.4%	1.3%
2026-09-11T06:14:04+00:00	47.1%	2.1%	7.8%	21.4%	1.3%
2026-09-11T06:59:09+00:00	47.1%	2.1%	7.8%	21.4%	1.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	47%	89.2°F	4.2°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	86.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	86.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-11 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	84.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	86.0°F	2.0°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	83.4°F	3.0°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
ICON	1%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260911-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Minneapolis · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗