KMSP / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Sep 08 · 02:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

77%

38%

26%

13%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 50.0¢Risks 50.00u

WN2NO 50.0¢Risks 50.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +50.00u · WN2 −50.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	57.3%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	85.2%	—	—	48.2%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	78.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	—	—	—	57.2%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	92.4%	—	—	74.6%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	98.1%	—	—	64.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	82.4%	—	—	41.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	87.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	96.4%	12.2%	—	59.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	19.4%	23.7%	—	36.4%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	1.5%	83.1%	30.3%	—	35.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	80.0%	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	7.2%	80.5%	26.1%	—	34.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	82.2%	43.4%	36.9%	—	28.6%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	11.1%	35.8%	—	—	23.9%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	26.2%	40.5%	33.8%	—	27.7%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	10.0%	56.3%	—	—	21.5%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	9.8%	67.0%	40.0%	—	16.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	15.9%	67.4%	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	25.5%	72.9%	17.1%	—	19.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	15.8%	61.8%	—	—	13.5%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	13.9%	60.2%	29.4%	—	10.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	11.1%	67.4%	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	8.1%	60.8%	19.0%	3.8%	8.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	8.7%	78.6%	5.4%	—	7.1%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	10.0%	55.8%	22.4%	3.1%	10.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	9.2%	42.8%	16.0%	—	8.7%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	13.7%	40.1%	18.2%	59.9%	12.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	5.6%	23.8%	13.5%	—	6.0%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	5.0%	25.1%	6.1%	55.4%	3.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	9.8%	24.2%	4.0%	—	2.7%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	6.3%	24.5%	9.5%	41.4%	7.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	4.1%	35.2%	4.8%	—	5.1%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.1%	40.6%	2.2%	0.7%	0.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.5%	20.3%	4.1%	—	3.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	87%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	50%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260912-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 78°F · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗