KMSP / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Sep 08 · 02:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

77%

38%

26%

13%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 50.0¢Risks 50.00u

WN2NO 50.0¢Risks 50.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +50.00u · WN2 −50.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T02:53:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:03:25+00:00	24.4%	77.5%	19.2%	14.0%	18.2%
2026-09-07T14:25:59+00:00	24.4%	77.5%	19.2%	14.0%	18.2%
2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00	24.4%	77.5%	19.2%	14.0%	18.2%
2026-09-07T14:51:46+00:00	24.4%	77.5%	19.2%	14.0%	18.2%
2026-09-07T14:51:49+00:00	24.4%	77.5%	19.2%	14.0%	18.2%
2026-09-07T15:36:57+00:00	24.4%	77.5%	19.2%	14.0%	18.2%
2026-09-07T16:22:04+00:00	24.4%	77.5%	19.2%	14.0%	18.2%
2026-09-07T17:07:10+00:00	24.4%	77.5%	19.2%	14.0%	18.2%
2026-09-07T17:52:15+00:00	24.4%	77.5%	19.2%	14.0%	18.2%
2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00	24.4%	77.5%	19.2%	14.0%	18.2%
2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00	24.4%	77.5%	19.2%	14.0%	18.2%
2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00	18.6%	77.5%	19.2%	38.4%	87.2%
2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00	18.6%	77.5%	19.2%	38.4%	87.2%
2026-09-07T21:37:41+00:00	18.6%	77.5%	19.2%	38.4%	87.2%
2026-09-07T22:22:46+00:00	18.6%	77.5%	19.2%	38.4%	87.2%
2026-09-07T23:07:51+00:00	18.6%	77.5%	12.8%	38.4%	87.2%
2026-09-07T23:52:56+00:00	18.6%	77.5%	12.8%	38.4%	87.2%
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00	18.6%	77.5%	12.8%	38.4%	87.2%
2026-09-08T01:23:06+00:00	26.3%	77.5%	12.8%	38.4%	87.2%
2026-09-08T02:08:11+00:00	26.3%	77.5%	12.8%	38.4%	87.2%
2026-09-08T02:53:16+00:00	26.3%	77.3%	12.8%	38.4%	87.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	87%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	50%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260912-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 78°F · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗