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KMSP / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 08 · 06:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
40%
EPS
14%
HRES
5%
AIFS
1%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 19.9¢Risks 19.90u
VS
WN2NO 80.1¢Risks 80.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +80.10u · WN2 −80.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-07T21:37:41+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-07T22:22:46+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-07T23:07:51+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-07T23:52:56+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-08T01:23:06+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-08T02:08:11+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-08T02:53:16+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-09-07T21:37:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-09-07T22:22:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-09-07T23:07:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-09-07T23:52:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-09-08T01:23:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-09-08T02:08:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-09-08T02:53:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.3% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-09-07T21:37:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-09-07T22:22:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-09-07T23:07:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-09-07T23:52:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-09-08T01:23:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-09-08T02:08:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-09-08T02:53:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-09-07T21:37:41+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-09-07T22:22:46+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-09-07T23:07:51+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-09-07T23:52:56+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-09-08T01:23:06+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-09-08T02:08:11+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-09-08T02:53:16+00:00IFS HRES: 5.3% · 2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00IFS HRES: 5.3% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00IFS HRES: 5.3% · 2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00IFS HRES: 5.3% · 2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00IFS HRES: 5.3% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00ICON: 39.7% · 2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00ICON: 39.7% · 2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00ICON: 39.7% · 2026-09-07T21:37:41+00:00ICON: 39.7% · 2026-09-07T22:22:46+00:00ICON: 39.7% · 2026-09-07T23:07:51+00:00ICON: 39.7% · 2026-09-07T23:52:56+00:00ICON: 39.7% · 2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00ICON: 39.7% · 2026-09-08T01:23:06+00:00ICON: 39.7% · 2026-09-08T02:08:11+00:00ICON: 39.7% · 2026-09-08T02:53:16+00:00ICON: 39.7% · 2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00ICON: 39.7% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00ICON: 39.7% · 2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00ICON: 39.7% · 2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00ICON: 39.7% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:0009-07 20:0709-08 01:2309-08 06:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:000.7%15.3%0.3%3.1%39.7%
2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:000.7%15.3%0.3%3.1%39.7%
2026-09-07T21:37:41+00:000.7%15.3%0.3%3.1%39.7%
2026-09-07T22:22:46+00:000.7%15.3%0.3%3.1%39.7%
2026-09-07T23:07:51+00:000.7%15.3%0.1%3.1%39.7%
2026-09-07T23:52:56+00:000.7%15.3%0.1%3.1%39.7%
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:000.7%15.3%0.1%3.1%39.7%
2026-09-08T01:23:06+00:001.3%15.3%0.1%3.1%39.7%
2026-09-08T02:08:11+00:001.3%15.3%0.1%3.1%39.7%
2026-09-08T02:53:16+00:001.3%14.3%0.1%3.1%39.7%
2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:001.3%14.3%0.1%5.3%39.7%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:001.3%14.3%0.1%5.3%39.7%
2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:001.3%14.3%0.1%5.3%39.7%
2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:001.3%14.3%0.1%5.3%39.7%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:001.3%14.3%0.1%5.3%39.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON40%——Not retainedPending
IFS Ensemble14%——Not retainedPending
National Blend6%——Not retainedPending
IFS HRES5%——Not retainedPending
AIFS Single1%——Not retainedPending
NWS forecast<1%——Not retainedPending
WeatherNext 2<1%——Not retainedPending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260912-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 07 · 20:07 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗