KMSP / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 08 · 06:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 19.9¢Risks 19.90u

WN2NO 80.1¢Risks 80.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +80.10u · WN2 −80.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	44.7%	—	—	11.1%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	83.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	56.9%	—	—	27.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	77.9%	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	33.6%	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	65.1%	0.5%	—	12.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	5.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	1.0%	1.5%	—	3.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	28.3%	2.0%	—	2.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	23.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	23.0%	1.2%	—	2.3%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	22.5%	3.3%	2.2%	—	1.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	1.9%	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.8%	2.3%	1.5%	—	0.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	5.0%	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	7.9%	1.8%	—	0.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	7.4%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	9.0%	0.2%	—	0.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	4.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	3.5%	0.5%	—	0.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	4.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	7.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	1.2%	0.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	40%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	6%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	1%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260912-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 07 · 20:07 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗