KMSP / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 12 · 01:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

96%

91%

74%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 87.1¢Risks 87.15u

ICONNO 12.9¢Risks 12.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +12.85u · ICON −12.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	96.2%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	96.6%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	95.1%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	91.3%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	95.2%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	—	—	—	97.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	97.7%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	97.3%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	—	—	—	99.3%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	82.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	89.4%	—	—	95.9%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	92.4%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	54.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	27.7%	—	—	87.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	88.1%	66.4%	—	84.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	80.1%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	79.5%	99.3%	84.8%	—	89.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	75.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	56.1%	99.6%	—	90.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	46.1%	—	—	15.0%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	47.6%	72.6%	—	82.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	59.7%	—	—	37.2%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	76.2%	93.7%	92.6%	—	90.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	57.6%	78.6%	—	—	81.0%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	61.3%	96.4%	99.7%	—	81.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	87.0%	99.6%	—	—	70.6%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	77.7%	25.1%	93.0%	89.4%	—	79.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	51.9%	95.8%	—	—	64.8%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	82.3%	88.9%	55.8%	88.9%	—	67.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	37.2%	79.6%	—	—	52.0%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	30.3%	54.1%	57.2%	91.0%	56.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	22.0%	62.5%	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	23.8%	95.5%	57.6%	4.7%	80.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	85.2%	54.5%	91.7%	52.2%	—	82.5%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	84.0%	79.3%	84.7%	80.1%	—	95.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	90.3%	98.1%	97.8%	94.8%	—	96.5%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	99.2%	98.9%	97.4%	—	99.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	98.2%	99.7%	97.9%	—	99.3%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	97.0%	100.0%	96.8%	91.6%	98.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	98.8%	99.9%	97.5%	—	98.9%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	99.3%	100.0%	99.1%	97.1%	99.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	99.5%	100.0%	98.5%	—	98.5%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	99.6%	100.0%	98.9%	98.5%	99.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	99.4%	100.0%	99.2%	—	99.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	75.5°F	2.6°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	71.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	70.9°F	4.3°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	91%	68.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
ICON	74%	65.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-11 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	63.8°F	7.4°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260913-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 11 · 15:15 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗