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KMSP / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 12 · 01:02 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
HRES
97%
AIFS
96%
WN2
91%
ICON
74%
Consensus
98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 87.1¢Risks 87.15u
VS
ICONNO 12.9¢Risks 12.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +12.85u · ICON −12.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 96.4% · 2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00AIFS Single: 96.4% · 2026-09-11T16:01:09+00:00AIFS Single: 96.4% · 2026-09-11T16:46:14+00:00AIFS Single: 96.4% · 2026-09-11T17:31:20+00:00AIFS Single: 96.4% · 2026-09-11T18:16:28+00:00AIFS Single: 96.4% · 2026-09-11T19:01:33+00:00AIFS Single: 95.8% · 2026-09-11T19:46:38+00:00AIFS Single: 95.8% · 2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00AIFS Single: 95.8% · 2026-09-11T21:16:51+00:00AIFS Single: 95.8% · 2026-09-11T22:01:58+00:00AIFS Single: 95.8% · 2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00AIFS Single: 95.8% · 2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00AIFS Single: 95.8% · 2026-09-12T00:17:15+00:00AIFS Single: 95.8% · 2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-11T16:01:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-11T16:46:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-11T17:31:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-11T18:16:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-11T19:01:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-11T19:46:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-11T21:16:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-11T22:01:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-12T00:17:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-09-11T16:01:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-09-11T16:46:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-09-11T17:31:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-09-11T18:16:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-09-11T19:01:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-09-11T19:46:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-09-11T21:16:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-09-11T22:01:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.1% · 2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.1% · 2026-09-12T00:17:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.1% · 2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-09-11T16:01:09+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-09-11T16:46:14+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-09-11T17:31:20+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-09-11T18:16:28+00:00IFS HRES: 93.8% · 2026-09-11T19:01:33+00:00IFS HRES: 97.1% · 2026-09-11T19:46:38+00:00IFS HRES: 97.1% · 2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00IFS HRES: 97.1% · 2026-09-11T21:16:51+00:00IFS HRES: 97.1% · 2026-09-11T22:01:58+00:00IFS HRES: 97.1% · 2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00IFS HRES: 97.1% · 2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00IFS HRES: 97.1% · 2026-09-12T00:17:15+00:00IFS HRES: 97.1% · 2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-09-11T16:01:09+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-09-11T16:46:14+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-09-11T17:31:20+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-09-11T18:16:28+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-09-11T19:01:33+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-09-11T19:46:38+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-09-11T21:16:51+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-09-11T22:01:58+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-09-12T00:17:15+00:00ICON: 74.3% · 2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:0009-11 15:1509-11 20:3109-12 01:02
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:0096.4%100.0%91.5%93.8%18.9%
2026-09-11T16:01:09+00:0096.4%100.0%91.5%93.8%18.9%
2026-09-11T16:46:14+00:0096.4%100.0%91.5%93.8%74.3%
2026-09-11T17:31:20+00:0096.4%100.0%90.6%93.8%74.3%
2026-09-11T18:16:28+00:0096.4%100.0%90.6%93.8%74.3%
2026-09-11T19:01:33+00:0096.4%100.0%90.6%93.8%74.3%
2026-09-11T19:46:38+00:0095.8%100.0%90.6%97.1%74.3%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:0095.8%100.0%90.6%97.1%74.3%
2026-09-11T21:16:51+00:0095.8%100.0%90.6%97.1%74.3%
2026-09-11T22:01:58+00:0095.8%100.0%90.6%97.1%74.3%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:0095.8%100.0%90.6%97.1%74.3%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:0095.8%100.0%91.1%97.1%74.3%
2026-09-12T00:17:15+00:0095.8%100.0%91.1%97.1%74.3%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:0095.8%100.0%91.1%97.1%74.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%75.5°F2.6°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending
IFS HRES97%71.4°F4.2°F2026-09-11 12:00Pending
AIFS Single96%70.9°F4.3°F2026-09-11 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 291%68.2°F3.5°F2026-09-11 12:00Pending
ICON74%65.8°F3.5°F2026-09-11 12:00Pending
NWS forecast56%64.0°F3.5°F2026-09-11 14:00Pending
National Blend52%63.8°F7.4°F2026-09-11 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260913-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 11 · 15:15 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗