KMSP / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Sep 11 · 02:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

88%

76%

60%

17%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 58.5¢Risks 58.50u

ICONNO 41.5¢Risks 41.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.50u · ICON −41.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	93.4%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	91.7%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	91.9%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	95.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	—	—	—	95.8%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	94.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	—	—	—	98.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	82.7%	—	—	92.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	—	—	—	86.8%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	17.6%	—	—	79.7%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	79.6%	52.8%	—	74.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	75.7%	67.7%	98.2%	74.6%	—	80.6%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	40.9%	98.9%	—	82.6%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	31.2%	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	32.3%	57.9%	—	69.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	43.5%	—	—	23.1%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	61.5%	86.7%	84.8%	—	81.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	40.7%	64.2%	—	—	67.4%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	43.9%	91.3%	99.0%	—	67.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	75.0%	98.5%	—	—	53.6%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	12.9%	84.5%	78.4%	—	64.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	33.5%	89.6%	—	—	46.2%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	76.8%	36.6%	76.8%	—	49.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	20.4%	62.8%	—	—	32.6%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	15.1%	34.0%	36.9%	79.5%	35.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	9.6%	41.6%	—	—	40.6%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	69.9%	10.4%	87.5%	36.1%	1.3%	61.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	32.6%	79.4%	30.5%	—	64.3%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.9%	59.2%	66.9%	60.4%	—	86.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	93.0%	92.2%	84.8%	—	88.6%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	96.3%	95.1%	90.5%	—	96.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	92.8%	98.2%	91.8%	—	96.5%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	88.7%	99.6%	88.0%	76.0%	92.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	80.9%	94.2%	99.3%	89.6%	—	94.6%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	80.9%	95.6%	99.6%	94.9%	87.8%	96.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	96.3%	99.7%	92.0%	—	92.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	80.8%	96.6%	99.9%	93.4%	91.7%	94.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	69.0%	95.5%	99.5%	94.2%	—	95.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	74.5°F	2.7°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	70.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	76%	68.1°F	3.6°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	66.7°F	4.5°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-10 14:00	Pending
National Blend	51%	65.7°F	7.7°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
ICON	17%	61.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260913-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 10 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗