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KMSP / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Sep 11 · 02:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
AIFS
88%
WN2
76%
HRES
60%
ICON
17%
Consensus
86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 58.5¢Risks 58.50u
VS
ICONNO 41.5¢Risks 41.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.50u · ICON −41.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-09-10T17:27:22+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-09-10T19:42:40+00:00AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-09-11T00:13:10+00:00AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-09-11T00:58:17+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-09-11T02:28:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-10T17:27:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-10T19:42:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-11T00:13:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-11T00:58:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-11T02:28:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.7% · 2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.7% · 2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.7% · 2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-09-10T17:27:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-09-10T19:42:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-09-11T00:13:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-09-11T00:58:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-09-11T02:28:29+00:00IFS HRES: 77.3% · 2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:00IFS HRES: 77.3% · 2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00IFS HRES: 77.3% · 2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00IFS HRES: 77.3% · 2026-09-10T17:27:22+00:00IFS HRES: 77.3% · 2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00IFS HRES: 77.3% · 2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-09-10T19:42:40+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-09-11T00:13:10+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-09-11T00:58:17+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-09-11T02:28:29+00:00ICON: 80.3% · 2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:00ICON: 80.3% · 2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00ICON: 17.0% · 2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00ICON: 17.0% · 2026-09-10T17:27:22+00:00ICON: 17.0% · 2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00ICON: 17.0% · 2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00ICON: 17.0% · 2026-09-10T19:42:40+00:00ICON: 17.0% · 2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00ICON: 17.0% · 2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00ICON: 17.0% · 2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00ICON: 17.0% · 2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00ICON: 17.0% · 2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00ICON: 17.0% · 2026-09-11T00:13:10+00:00ICON: 17.0% · 2026-09-11T00:58:17+00:00ICON: 17.0% · 2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00ICON: 17.0% · 2026-09-11T02:28:29+00:0009-10 15:1209-10 21:1209-11 02:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-11T02:28:29+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:0088.2%100.0%78.7%77.3%80.3%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:0088.2%100.0%78.7%77.3%80.3%
2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:0088.2%100.0%78.7%77.3%17.0%
2026-09-10T17:27:22+00:0088.2%100.0%76.2%77.3%17.0%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:0088.2%100.0%76.2%77.3%17.0%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:0088.2%100.0%76.2%77.3%17.0%
2026-09-10T19:42:40+00:0087.3%100.0%76.2%60.4%17.0%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:0087.3%100.0%76.2%60.4%17.0%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:0087.3%100.0%76.2%60.4%17.0%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:0087.3%100.0%76.2%60.4%17.0%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:0087.3%100.0%76.2%60.4%17.0%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:0087.3%100.0%76.2%60.4%17.0%
2026-09-11T00:13:10+00:0087.3%100.0%76.2%60.4%17.0%
2026-09-11T00:58:17+00:0087.3%100.0%76.2%60.4%17.0%
2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:0088.2%100.0%76.2%60.4%17.0%
2026-09-11T02:28:29+00:0088.2%100.0%76.2%60.4%17.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%74.5°F2.7°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending
AIFS Single88%70.8°F4.5°F2026-09-10 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 276%68.1°F3.6°F2026-09-10 12:00Pending
IFS HRES60%66.7°F4.5°F2026-09-10 12:00Pending
NWS forecast55%66.0°F3.9°F2026-09-10 14:00Pending
National Blend51%65.7°F7.7°F2026-09-10 06:00Pending
ICON17%61.8°F3.9°F2026-09-10 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260913-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 10 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗