KMSP / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Sep 09 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

70%

62%

54%

52%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 74.4¢Risks 74.45u

WN2NO 25.6¢Risks 25.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +25.55u · WN2 −25.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	—	—	—	90.3%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	90.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	88.7%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	—	—	—	95.9%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	68.7%	—	—	83.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	74.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	7.5%	—	—	62.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	61.8%	32.3%	—	54.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	46.4%	93.8%	54.4%	—	62.3%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	21.1%	95.6%	—	64.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	14.1%	—	—	2.2%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	14.5%	34.5%	—	46.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	21.8%	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	36.9%	68.5%	65.5%	—	59.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	19.0%	39.0%	—	—	42.4%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	20.8%	75.9%	95.3%	—	41.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	50.0%	93.2%	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	3.4%	62.7%	53.7%	—	37.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	12.7%	70.8%	—	—	21.0%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	50.0%	14.2%	50.0%	—	22.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	5.7%	33.5%	—	—	11.4%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	3.5%	11.8%	13.4%	52.1%	12.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	1.8%	15.6%	—	—	15.0%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	1.9%	62.9%	11.9%	0.1%	30.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.7%	9.7%	48.9%	8.7%	—	31.5%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	26.0%	33.1%	27.0%	—	58.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	71.7%	69.6%	54.8%	—	61.9%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	80.1%	76.4%	64.6%	—	81.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	68.7%	87.2%	66.3%	—	80.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.1%	58.0%	95.4%	56.7%	38.1%	66.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	70.0%	92.4%	58.3%	—	71.2%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.4%	73.2%	94.1%	70.7%	52.9%	77.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.1%	74.0%	94.8%	60.5%	—	60.5%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	73.7%	98.0%	62.4%	57.9%	65.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	67.6%	90.8%	63.0%	—	69.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	76.0°F	4.0°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	71.6°F	5.9°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	70.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-08 14:00	Pending
ICON	54%	69.0°F	5.7°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	68.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
National Blend	50%	68.5°F	8.9°F	2026-09-08 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260913-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69.4°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗