KMSP / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Sep 09 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

70%

62%

54%

52%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 74.4¢Risks 74.45u

WN2NO 25.6¢Risks 25.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +25.55u · WN2 −25.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:03:25+00:00	67.2%	93.5%	50.0%	36.6%	64.6%
2026-09-07T14:25:59+00:00	67.2%	93.5%	50.0%	36.6%	64.6%
2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00	67.2%	93.5%	50.0%	36.6%	64.6%
2026-09-07T14:51:46+00:00	67.2%	93.5%	50.0%	36.6%	64.6%
2026-09-07T14:51:49+00:00	67.2%	93.5%	50.0%	36.6%	64.6%
2026-09-08T14:54:41+00:00	54.0%	97.0%	39.5%	24.2%	39.0%
2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00	54.0%	97.0%	39.5%	24.2%	39.0%
2026-09-08T15:49:10+00:00	54.0%	97.0%	39.5%	24.2%	39.0%
2026-09-08T16:00:09+00:00	54.0%	97.0%	39.5%	24.2%	39.0%
2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00	54.0%	97.0%	39.5%	24.2%	39.0%
2026-09-08T17:06:45+00:00	54.0%	97.0%	42.3%	24.2%	39.0%
2026-09-08T17:20:30+00:00	54.0%	97.0%	42.3%	24.2%	39.0%
2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00	54.0%	97.0%	42.3%	24.2%	39.0%
2026-09-08T18:50:40+00:00	54.0%	97.0%	42.3%	24.2%	39.0%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00	42.1%	97.0%	42.3%	70.1%	53.5%
2026-09-08T20:20:51+00:00	42.1%	97.0%	42.3%	70.1%	53.5%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00	42.1%	97.0%	42.3%	70.1%	53.5%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00	42.1%	97.0%	42.3%	70.1%	53.5%
2026-09-08T22:36:05+00:00	42.1%	97.0%	42.3%	70.1%	53.5%
2026-09-08T23:21:11+00:00	42.1%	97.0%	51.9%	70.1%	53.5%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00	42.1%	97.0%	51.9%	70.1%	53.5%
2026-09-09T00:51:23+00:00	42.1%	97.0%	51.9%	70.1%	53.5%
2026-09-09T01:36:28+00:00	61.7%	97.0%	51.9%	70.1%	53.5%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00	61.7%	97.0%	51.9%	70.1%	53.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	76.0°F	4.0°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	71.6°F	5.9°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	70.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-08 14:00	Pending
ICON	54%	69.0°F	5.7°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	68.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
National Blend	50%	68.5°F	8.9°F	2026-09-08 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260913-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69.4°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗