KMSP / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Sep 13 · 07:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

74%

63%

25%

21%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.6¢Risks 59.60u

ICONNO 40.4¢Risks 40.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.40u · ICON −40.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	84.9%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	—	—	—	85.0%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	—	—	—	82.3%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	92.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	57.2%	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	63.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	63.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	3.8%	—	—	49.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	47.9%	20.9%	—	40.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	32.3%	88.0%	39.9%	—	47.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	11.8%	90.7%	—	49.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	7.1%	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	7.2%	21.2%	—	31.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	11.8%	—	—	3.9%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	22.5%	52.5%	49.2%	—	43.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	9.5%	23.9%	—	—	26.7%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	10.5%	60.4%	89.1%	—	25.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	32.6%	85.0%	—	—	15.0%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	1.1%	44.5%	35.6%	—	21.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	5.3%	52.8%	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	31.3%	5.9%	31.3%	—	10.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	1.9%	17.7%	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	1.0%	4.4%	5.2%	32.1%	4.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	0.4%	6.2%	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	0.4%	41.3%	4.2%	0.0%	14.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	3.1%	27.6%	2.7%	—	14.8%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	11.0%	15.3%	11.6%	—	35.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	48.8%	46.4%	31.4%	—	38.1%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	58.7%	53.7%	40.1%	—	61.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	43.6%	68.7%	41.0%	—	57.7%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	31.9%	84.3%	30.7%	16.5%	40.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	43.1%	76.8%	31.2%	—	44.4%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	45.7%	79.8%	42.8%	25.6%	51.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	45.5%	80.8%	31.1%	—	31.1%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	43.7%	89.8%	31.7%	27.6%	34.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	35.5%	69.0%	30.9%	—	37.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	76.1°F	2.8°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	72.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	71.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-13 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	68.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	21%	67.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260913-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 07 · 15:36 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗