KMSP / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Sep 13 · 07:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

74%

63%

25%

21%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.6¢Risks 59.60u

ICONNO 40.4¢Risks 40.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.40u · ICON −40.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T15:36:57+00:00	53.0%	87.7%	32.7%	24.1%	53.0%
2026-09-07T16:22:04+00:00	53.0%	87.7%	32.7%	24.1%	53.0%
2026-09-07T17:07:10+00:00	53.0%	87.7%	53.6%	24.1%	53.0%
2026-09-07T17:52:15+00:00	53.0%	87.7%	53.6%	24.1%	53.0%
2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00	53.0%	87.7%	53.6%	24.1%	53.0%
2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00	53.0%	87.7%	53.6%	24.1%	53.0%
2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00	55.2%	87.7%	53.6%	49.3%	80.3%
2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00	55.2%	87.7%	53.6%	49.3%	80.3%
2026-09-07T21:37:41+00:00	55.2%	87.7%	53.6%	49.3%	80.3%
2026-09-07T22:22:46+00:00	55.2%	87.7%	53.6%	49.3%	80.3%
2026-09-07T23:07:51+00:00	55.2%	87.7%	39.4%	49.3%	80.3%
2026-09-07T23:52:56+00:00	55.2%	87.7%	39.4%	49.3%	80.3%
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00	55.2%	87.7%	39.4%	49.3%	80.3%
2026-09-08T01:23:06+00:00	45.6%	87.7%	39.4%	49.3%	80.3%
2026-09-08T02:08:11+00:00	45.6%	87.7%	39.4%	49.3%	80.3%
2026-09-08T02:53:16+00:00	45.6%	87.3%	39.4%	49.3%	80.3%
2026-09-09T15:08:27+00:00	45.8%	—	20.5%	41.4%	16.7%
2026-09-09T15:53:35+00:00	45.8%	—	20.5%	41.4%	16.7%
2026-09-09T16:38:40+00:00	45.8%	—	20.5%	41.4%	3.1%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	45.8%	—	15.7%	41.4%	3.1%
2026-09-09T18:08:53+00:00	45.8%	—	15.7%	41.4%	3.1%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	45.8%	—	15.7%	41.4%	3.1%
2026-09-09T19:39:06+00:00	51.7%	—	15.7%	12.3%	3.1%
2026-09-09T20:24:14+00:00	51.7%	—	15.7%	12.3%	3.1%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00	51.7%	—	15.7%	12.3%	3.1%
2026-09-09T21:54:24+00:00	51.7%	—	15.7%	12.3%	3.1%
2026-09-09T22:39:32+00:00	51.7%	—	15.7%	12.3%	3.1%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00	51.7%	—	14.5%	12.3%	3.1%
2026-09-10T00:09:42+00:00	51.7%	—	14.5%	12.3%	3.1%
2026-09-10T00:54:49+00:00	51.7%	—	14.5%	12.3%	3.1%
2026-09-10T01:39:56+00:00	50.8%	—	14.5%	12.3%	3.1%
2026-09-10T02:25:02+00:00	50.8%	94.9%	14.5%	12.3%	3.1%
2026-09-12T15:20:11+00:00	65.9%	97.1%	32.9%	85.6%	42.2%
2026-09-12T16:05:22+00:00	65.9%	97.1%	32.9%	85.6%	42.2%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	65.9%	97.1%	32.9%	85.6%	42.2%
2026-09-12T17:35:33+00:00	65.9%	97.1%	25.8%	85.6%	42.2%
2026-09-12T18:20:42+00:00	65.9%	97.1%	25.8%	85.6%	42.2%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	65.9%	97.1%	25.8%	85.6%	42.2%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	58.6%	97.1%	25.8%	85.6%	21.5%
2026-09-12T20:35:58+00:00	58.6%	97.1%	25.8%	85.6%	21.5%
2026-09-12T21:21:03+00:00	58.6%	97.1%	25.8%	85.6%	21.5%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	58.6%	97.1%	25.8%	85.6%	21.5%
2026-09-12T22:51:14+00:00	58.6%	97.1%	25.8%	73.8%	21.5%
2026-09-12T23:36:20+00:00	58.6%	97.8%	24.8%	73.8%	21.4%
2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00	58.6%	97.8%	24.8%	73.8%	21.4%
2026-09-13T01:06:33+00:00	58.6%	97.8%	24.8%	73.8%	21.4%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	63.2%	97.8%	24.8%	73.8%	21.4%
2026-09-13T02:36:53+00:00	63.2%	97.8%	24.8%	73.8%	21.4%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	63.2%	97.8%	24.8%	73.8%	21.4%
2026-09-13T04:07:08+00:00	63.2%	97.8%	24.8%	73.8%	21.4%
2026-09-13T04:52:19+00:00	63.2%	97.8%	24.8%	73.8%	21.4%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	63.2%	97.8%	24.8%	73.8%	21.4%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	63.2%	97.8%	24.8%	73.8%	21.4%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	63.2%	97.8%	24.8%	73.8%	21.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	76.1°F	2.8°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	72.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	71.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-13 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	68.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	21%	67.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260913-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 07 · 15:36 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗